compiled by Milan MILOSEVIC
| Who will the citizens of Serbia vote for in the next Serbian elections? | |
| They will vote for DOS [The Democratic Opposition of Serbia] | 60 % |
| They will vote for SPS [The Socialist Party of Serbia] | 5 % |
| They will vote for SPO [The Serb Renewal Movement] | 2 % |
| They will vote for SRS [The Serb Radical Party] | 2 % |
| They will vote for JUL [The United Yugoslav Left] | 1 % |
| Don't know | 30 % |
| (Srecko Mihailovic, Opinion about elections and participants in elections) |
| Who did you vote for in the last Federal election? | |
| DOS | 59 % |
| SPS-JUL | 12 % |
| SPO | 3 % |
| SRS | 4 % |
| Did not vote or not willing to reveal voting preference | 22 % |
| (Srecko Mihailovic) |
| Who did they really vote for in the last Federal election? | |
| Chamber of citizens | 138 representatives |
| DOS-Dr. Vojislav Kostunica | 58 representatives, 2,040,646 votes |
| The Socialist Party of Serbia-United Yugoslav Left, Slobodan Milosevic | 44 representatives, 1,532,841 votes |
| The Socialist People's Party of Montenegro-Momir Bulatovic | 28 representatives, 104,198 votes |
| The Serb Radical Party-Dr. Vojislav Seselj | 5 representatives, 406,196 votes |
| The Serb People's Party-Zelidrag Nikcevic | 2 representatives, 8048 votes |
| The Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians-Dr. Joszef Kasa | 1 representative, 47,768 votes |
| (report of the Federal Elections Commission dated October 26, sent to the Federal Yugoslav Parliament) |
| Who did you vote for in the last presidential election? | |
| for Vojislav Kostunica [DOS] | 60 % |
| for Slobodan Milosevic [SPS-JUL] | 13 % |
| for Toma Nikolic [SRS] | 3 % |
| for Vojislav Mihajlovic [SPO] | 2 % |
| Did not vote or not willing to reveal voting preference | 22 % |
| (Srecko Mihailovic) |
| Who did they really vote for? | |
| for Vojislav Kostunica [DOS] | 2,470,304 or 50.24% |
| for Slobodan Milosevic [SPS-JUL] | 1,826,799 or 37.15% |
| for Toma Nikolic [SRS] | 289,013 or 5.88% |
| for Vojislav Mihajlovic [SPO] | 145,019 or 2.95% |
| for Miroslav Vidojkovic [independent] | 45,964 or 0.93% |
| (report of the Federal Elections Commission dated October 26, sent to the Federal Yugoslav Parliament) |
| Should the elections for the President of Serbia have been also called? | |
| It is good that the elections for the Serbian Parliament have been called | 17 % |
| It would have been better if both the elections for the Serbian Parliament and the president of Serbia have been called | 52 % |
| Don't know | 31 % |
| (Srecko Mihailovic) |
| Which political party advocates the ideas you personally support? | ||
| support | against | |
| The Democratic Party of Serbia | 65% | 12% |
| The Democratic Party | 38% | 27% |
| The Democratic Center | 31% | 23% |
| New Serbia | 31% | 22% |
| The Civic Alliance of Serbia | 28% | 23% |
| The Democratic Alternative | 28% | 25% |
| The Christian Democrats of Serbia | 25% | 25% |
| The Movement for Democratic Serbia | 25% | 24% |
| The Socialdemocracy | 24% | 26% |
| The Social Democratic Union | 22% | 24% |
| The League of Socialdemocrats of Vojvodina | 17% | 40% |
| New Democracy | 13% | 34% |
| The Reform-Democrats of Vojvodina | 12% | 31% |
| Coalition Vojvodina | 12% | 38% |
| The Socialist Party of Serbia | 12% | 72% |
| The Serb Renewal Movement | 8% | 69% |
| The Serb Radical Party | 8% | 74% |
| JUL | 5% | 78% |
| (the difference to 100% includes don't knows and those who did not have a specific opinion about a certain party) | ||
| (Srecko Mihailovic) |
| Winners and losers? | |||
| support in September 1999 | in July 2000 | in October 2000 | |
| The Civic Alliance of Serbia | 9% | 21% | 28% |
| The Democratic Party | 14% | 25% | 38% |
| The Democratic Party of Serbia | 15% | 30% | 65% |
| JUL | 8% | 15% | 5% |
| New Democracy | 3% | 11% | 13% |
| The Socialdemocracy | 12% | 20% | 24% |
| The Socialist Party of Serbia | 16% | 20% | 12% |
| The Serb Renewal Movement | 16% | 20% | 8% |
| The Serb Radical Party | 10% | 15% | 8% |
| In the last year The Democratic Party of Serbia improved its support 4.3 times, The New Democracy improved its support also 4.3 times, The Democratic Party 2.7 times and Socialdemocracy twofold. On the other hand, The Serb Renewal Movement, JUL, The Socialist Party of Serbia and The Serb Radical Party have all lost supporters | |||
| (Srecko Mihailovic) |
| What is your opinion of politicians? | ||
| positive | negative | |
| Vojislav Kostunica | 85% | 4% |
| Mladan Dinkic | 64% | 8% |
| Miroljub Labus | 58% | 5% |
| Dragoljub Micunovic | 51% | 14% |
| Velimir Velja Ilic | 50% | 13% |
| Nebojsa Covic | 49% | 12% |
| Milan St. Protic | 46% | 10% |
| Goran Svilanovic | 45% | 10% |
| Momcilo Perisic | 44% | 19% |
| Vuk Obradovic | 43% | 19% |
| Zoran Dindic | 43% | 40% |
| Vladan Batic | 38% | 12% |
| Zarko Korac | 35% | 10% |
| Nenad Canak | 35% | 25% |
| Dusan Mihajlovic | 26% | 21% |
| Dragan Veselinov | 24% | 22% |
| Mile Isakov | 21% | 13% |
| Milan Milutinovic | 19% | 61% |
| Slobodan Milosevic | 14% | 74% |
| Vojislav Seselj | 12% | 75% |
| Vuk Draskovic | 11% | 73% |
| (the difference to 100% includes don't knows and those who did not have a specific opinion about a certain party) | ||
| Vojislav Kostunica and the Democratic Party of Serbia are at this moment main representatives of the new image of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia and the whole process of democratization in Serbia. Kostunica is followed by Dinkic, Labus, Micunovic, Ilic (all over 50% of positive opinions). On the other hand the drop in support for several very eminent politicians, mostly from the ruling parties or parties that from time to time participated in the former government, is striking | ||
| (Srecko Mihailovic) |
Should Slobodan Milosevic be tried?
The smallest number of citizens opted for a Hague Tribunal war-crimes trial in our country (5%); 8.5% agree that he should be extradited to the Hague Tribunal and be tried in the Hague; 11% agree that he should be tried for war-crimes by our court; 14% believe that he should not be tried at all; Most respondents opted for "he should be tried in the country for corruption, electoral fraud, abuse of power etc." (48%). Only 13% refused to answer this question or stated that they did not know how to answer it.
(Bora Kuzmanovic: Current opinion of citizens of Serbia and assessment of the state of society)
Do you trust the Army?
The Army in general enjoys the biggest trust of the citizens. More than three quarters of the citizens of Serbia trust it. On the other hand only 10% do not trust the Army. In comparison with earlier polls the trust in the Army is on the increase.
(Zoran Stojiljkovic: trust in organizations and institutions)
Do you trust the military leadership?
The trust in the military leadership is significantly lower. About a half of respondents trusts the military leadership, somewhat than a quarter do not trust them, while about 20% are not sure.
(Zoran Stojiljkovic)
Do you trust Police?
The trust is slightly larger than mistrust (44 vs. 31 percent).
Do you trust the police leadership?
More respondents distrust the police leadership (43%) than express trust (30%). About a fifth are not sure (21%).
(Zoran Stojiljkovic)
| Should the military be reformed? | ||
| We should keep general conscription, because that is our tradition | 29 % | |
| We should keep general conscription, but use professional soldiers for some duties | 29 % | |
| General conscription should be abolished and the military should be fully professional | 32 % | |
| Don't know | 10 % | |
| The public increasingly supports the necessity of establishment of democratic control over the military and the police, as well as their parallel professionalization and modernization | ||
| (Zoran Stojiljkovic) |
| What should be the defense policy of our country? | |
| We should keep our neutrality as until now and rely only on our own forces | 25 % |
| We should strengthen the alliance with Russia and rely on its assistance for defense | 9 % |
| We should join European defense alliances (Partnership for Peace, NATO) | 42% |
| Don't know, not sure | 24 % |
| (Zoran Stojiljkovic) |
Should our country link up with other countries?
A significant majority supports integration with European states (59 %), which is a slight increase in comparison with the previous period. The support for all other options remains unchanged. Regional integration (with former Yugoslav republics and neighbors) is supported by 10% of the respondents, a small number sees the future of Serbia in an alliance with America (3.5%) and even smaller number in an alliance with China (1%); the number of those who support an alliance with Russia has been slightly reduced (5.5% instead of 8%), while 10% of respondents support "self-isolation" and reliance on our own forces.
(Mirjana Vasovic: goals, identification and orientation)
| What are the most desirable relations between Serbia and Montenegro? | |
| A single centralized state | 11% |
| The current state is good, but it is not implemented | 19% |
| A federation in which the interests of both members would be respected | 28 % |
| Confederation, a loose alliance of Serbia and Montenegro | 7% |
| Union of two independent states | 11% |
| Serbia and Montenegro as two independent states | 11% |
| Don't know | 13 % |
| In this context it should be emphasized that, in comparison with previous polls, the number of supporters of independence for Serbia and Montenegro and the centralized Yugoslav state has dropped | |
| (Mirjana Vasovic) |
What status should Kosovo have?
Most respondents supported wide ranging autonomy of Kosovo within Serbia (28%), but a significant portion of respondents supports the division of Kosovo to an Albanian and Serb parts (21%). A third option with significant support is the return of Kosovo within Serbia, if necessary by force (18%). Eight percent of respondents supported the idea of leaving Kosovo under UN jurisdiction for somewhat longer, 5% support "Kosovo republic" while only 1% support the independence of Kosovo. In comparison with previous polls there is very little change in stated opinions, so that it is possible to talk about the stable convictions of the inhabitants of Serbia as far as the Kosovo problem is concerned (although it should be stated that some new options were offered in this poll).
(Mirjana Vasovic)
| Are the citizens more politically active after October 5? | ||
| Strong or significant interest in politics (activism) tripled in comparison with the previous CPA poll conducted in September, while the lack of interest in politics (apathy) has significantly dropped | ||
| Before elections | After elections | |
| Potential activist | 10% | 33% |
| Passive | 41% | 38% |
| Apathy | 49% | 29% |
| (Stjepan Gredelj: Serbia after Federal elections, potential for action) |
| Did you participate in protest and rallies? | ||
| July 2000 | October 2000 | |
| Participated and will continue to do so | 20% | 34% |
| Did not participate and does not want to participate | 63% | 51% |
| (Stjepan Gredelj) |
| Was the post-election violence justified? | |
| Violence was the only way | 33% |
| It was justified | 35% |
| It was not justified | 23% |
| Not sure | 9% |
| (Stjepan Gredelj) |
| What do you think about crisis councils? | ||
| Agree | Disagree | |
| There is no other way to remove incompetent individuals from the previous regime | 44% | 20% |
| The demands for change are justified only if supported by the trade union and a majority of the employees | 60% | 6% |
| I've had enough of fake abuse of DOS for personal gain | 38% | 14% |
| The so-called democratic authorities are using dissatisfaction and illegally firing people | 15% | 45% |
| (Stjepan Gredelj) |
What is the general mood?
The feeling of anger and rage has abated to a certain extent (but is still present). If we follow the changes of the situation and mood of the citizens over the last year we can conclude (although identical instruments have not been used in all polls) that the mood developed from apathy, fear, and concern, over rage and hope, to the firm conviction that soon everything would be better, all the way to euphoria. Optimism and readiness for personal involvement are more frequently found among educated respondents than among those who completed only the primary school. When the respondents were asked to pick one of the offered mood descriptions, most of them opted for "conviction that soon everything will change for the better" (34%), then for the general hope and optimism (21%), but fear and concern are still in the third place (12%).
(Bora Kuzmanovic)
What are the expectations?
The newly awakened optimism of the citizens is tied above all to the future and did not lead to the critical assessment of the present. Only one percent of respondents assesses the current situation as good, 19% as bearable, 55% as almost unbearable, and 23% as unbearable. In comparison with the poll conducted in September, the number of those who assess the situation as unbearable dropped (to 23% from 37%) and the number of those who assess the situation as "almost unbearable" increased from 46% to 55%)...
(Bora Kuzmanovic)
What does that mitigation of critical attitude indicate?
The reduction of the number of respondents opting for the harshest possible assessment of the situation probably indicates that the citizens are prepared to be patient for a while, giving the new authorities a chance to do something to change the situation. It is hard, we understand the situation and will be patient for a while in hope that the situation will begin to improve, citizens roughly say.
(Bora Kuzmanovic)
What will the next year be like?
Most respondents (47%) are moderately optimistic and expect that the next year will be "somewhat better than the few previous years", but the number of those who expect that the next year will be "much better than the last few years" is also not insignificant (17%); on the other hand, the number of those who do not expect improvement is much smaller (9%), while even less respondents believe that the next year will be somewhat worse (4%) or even much worse (5%).
While the supporters of Kostunica (and naturally DOS) much more often than the supporters of Slobodan Milosevic assess that the next year will be better than the last few years (59% vs. 23%) or even much better (22% vs. 4%), the latter more frequently assess that the next year will be much worse (21% vs. 1%), somewhat worse (14% vs. 35%) or the same as previous years.
(Bora Kuzmanovic)
Will the new government be able to enjoy a 100-days "honeymoon"?
The citizens expect to soon see some tangible signs of an improvement in their existential situation. That can also be seen from their answer to the question whether they trust announcements of some DOS leaders that living standard could improve soon. Somewhat more than 58% believe in that, while only 16% do not, and 25% are "not sure what to say"...
Optimistic expectations can be a favorable factor and impetus (support) for the actions of the new authorities, but, if they turn out not to be realistic, can become a source of new dissatisfaction, social disturbances and potential rebellions...
(Bora Kuzmanovic)
For example, do citizens expect that prices be controlled?
25 percent of respondents demand price controls (earlier 26%); 54% support free formation of prices (earlier 51%). Comparison of responses from two periods indicates that there are no significant changes in attitudes; free formation of prices was supported by a majority both before and now, somewhat more by wealthy respondents, and least by the housewives.
(Mirjana Vasovic)
What is the reaction to the increases in prices of important products and services?
Most respondents (37 %) believe that "these changes are a consequence of the attempts of the supporters of the previous regime to provoke dissatisfaction among the citizens", more than a fifth (22%) believe that the worsening of the living standard in this phase could not be avoided and will be temporary, 18% opt for the answer "I am somewhat disappointed because of the clumsiness of the new authorities", one tenth (10%) accept the explicit assessment that these changes are the consequence of bad work and incompetence of the new authorities, and 14% cannot decide or refuse to answer.
(Bora Kuzmanovic)
What do citizens expect from the state?
Now, as well as in the previous poll the predominant attitude is that of support for a social [welfare] state, the state that is responsible to ensure existence of every individual (61%, earlier 64%); 25% of respondents (earlier 22%) agree that the people should take responsibility for their own wellbeing.
31 percent of respondents agree that citizens should contribute to the expense of education and health care (earlier 29%), while 47% believe that the state should cover these expenses on its own (earlier 44%)...
Attitudes about social security were otherwise among the basic social-psychological supports of the former (communist and neo-communist) authorities. In this sense, for years public opinion polls have recorded a steady fall of the number of citizens who advocate the preservation of the minimum of social security at the expense of greater opportunity for individual and social improvement. In a way, this fall coincided with the loss of trust in the previous authorities and the increase in the number of those who questioned their legitimacy. The most recent polls indicate that this trend is likely to continue, although at slower speed. A secure job, regardless of the salary is still the choice of 33% (earlier 44%) respondents, while 47% (earlier 40%) opt for a job that provides opportunity to make a bigger salary, even though the job may not be as secure...
(Mirjana Vasovic)
Based on the results of the polls conducted before and after the elections, have the citizens of Serbia changed their priorities?
Comparison of results form these two periods indicates that the key priorities of the citizens of Serbia haven't changed. The order of priorities remains unchanged. Solution of social problems and improvement of living standard is on the top (48% both before and after the elections). Next in importance are "the establishment of the democratic political order" (31%), "establishment of a market economy" (11%), and in the last place "good solution of the national question" (6%)...
In general, the importance of the "the establishment of the democratic order" has slightly increased after the elections, while the importance of the "good solution for the national question" has slightly dropped. Also, it is noticeable that in the post-election period the citizens put somewhat more emphasis on the solution of social problems.
(Mirjana Vasovic)