All Kosovo Options
by Zoran Lutovac
Vreme, Belgrade, FR Yugoslavia, May 10, 1997
Recently, Kosovo has again become the most frequently used key
word in political statements. The state-controlled media led an attack against the participants
of the debate about the Kosovo problem organized by the Carnegie Foundation in
New York, although the government representatives had taken part in the similar
meeting in 1995. Later, the media campaign focused on the participants of the meeting
of experts which took place in Vienna. Then it was announced that the members
of the Serb-Albanian commission for the normalization of education in Kosovo would
meet soon. At the same time, we found out that the political parties of
Kosovo Albanians were in consultations regarding the organization of their
parallel elections in May 1997; then, it was announced that these
elections will maybe be held in September. The leader of Kosovo Albanians,
Ibrahim Rugova, confirmed that the "parallel elections for the parliament and
the president" will be held in Kosovo and appealed to the Kosovo Serbs to take part
in them. He offered them 14 seats (out of 144) in the [parallel] Kosovo parliament.
President of the Kosovo and Metohija Resistance Movement, Momcilo Trajkovic and
Raska-Prizren bishop of the Orthodox Serbian Church again gathered Serb political
parties in Decani in order to achieve Serb consensus about the Kosovo problem.
They were largely unsuccessful. Again, it is questionable who wants to achieve
what in Kosovo. As customary, loud accusations and mystifications usually confuse the
object of conversation. We reprint this article from Kragujevac
"Nezavisna Svetlost";
Its author is Zoran Lutovac, researcher in the Institute for Social Sciences
at the Belgrade University; the article lists 12 proposals for the solution of
the Kosovo problem which have so far appeared in the public debate. Both official
and unofficial proposals were included. They have various degrees of public support.
Autonomy
Establishment of the autonomous status of Kosovo, similar to that in 1974 has been
mention as the desirable solution by the "International Community", actually
its most powerful members. Under the influence of the "International Community",
Albania has officially accepted the autonomy as a compromise solution, or as
"a minimal acceptable solution", or a "starting point" for Serb-Albanian
negotiations about Kosovo.
The above mentioned proposal has two versions. One version, "autonomy 1974 minus"
would reduce the autonomy from 1974 by removing the elements of statehood. The
present Serbian regime, as well as the majority of the opposition, look
favorably at this proposal. It would represent the modification of the present
autonomous status of Kosovo and the combination of the solution from the 1990
Serbian constitution and the solution from 1974. The other version of this proposal
is "autonomy 1974 plus" which goes a step further with respect to the autonomy
which Kosovo had as a part of the former Yugoslavia. The emphasis is in the strengthening
of the elements of statehood, which would be a "transitional solution" on the
road to independence of Kosovo which is the final strategic goal. This version
is acceptable for the so called "soft wing", mostly among Albanians living
outside Kosovo. When speaking about the autonomy from 1974, both Serb and Albanian
side emphasize negative experiences: Serbs emphasize that such a solution leads
to separatism, and the Kosovo Albanians that it is obsolete after the experience with
the abolishment of the autonomy and the repression which followed. "Plus" and
"minus" proposals are offers forced by the international community. These proposals
are followed with a bitter feeling that something is "given" or "taken" and do
not represent a spirit of compromise and good will for common life.
Balkania
Additional or new federalization of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia [FRY],
which is promoted by some "independent" intellectuals with civic orientation,
would give Kosovo a status of a new federal unit - a Republic. This exactly corresponds
to the demand of Kosovo Albanians in the 1981 demonstrations; however, after the
break up of the former Yugoslavia most of them view this demand as "obsolete".
The emphasis of this proposal is in internal statehood which could in the future
lead to the establishment of an independent state, similar to the republics
in the former Yugoslavia. Confederalization is the proposal which is most
often linked with Adem Demaqi, president of the Parliamentarian Party of Kosovo
and his project of the Balkan confederation, usually referred to as "Balkania".
Demaqi proposes a confederation of "three free, secular and sovereign states -
Kosovo, Serbia and Montenegro". Each one of the members would have the right to secede
from the confederation and would have separate membership in the United Nations and
all other international organizations. According to the proposal, citizens of
each of the future member states would have to approve the membership in the
confederation by a majority of votes in a referendum, while the addition of new members
would have to be approved by the old members, through referenda.
This proposal also puts a lot of emphasis on the independence of member states.
Regionalisation
The academician Miodrag Jovicic has most fully developed and justified the concept
of the regionalization of FRY. Attempting to, as he says, connect "certain advantages
of both unitary and federal states and to at the same time remove certain weaknesses
of both concepts", Jovicic proposed the concept of a regionalised state. He proposes
the division of FRY to 13 regions, where Kosovo and Metohija [parts of the present
autonomous region of Kosovo and Metohija (Kosovo)] would be two separate regions.
These two regions would differ from others because their regional assemblies
would have two chambers: one chamber would be elected "in general and direct
election based on mixed majority-proportional system, while the other chamber
would have equal number of the representatives of Sqiptars [Albanians], on one
hand, and the other citizens from the region, Serbs, muslims, Turks and Roma,
on the other hand..." All decisions of the regional assemblies of
Kosovo and Metohija would have to be approved by the majority in both chambers of
the regional assembly, with the provisions that some decisions would require
two thirds majority in both chambers. The disadvantage of this proposal is
that Montenegro would become a region, while the public and political parties
in Montenegro strongly identify Montenegro as a state. Therefore this proposal
would be potentially acceptable only for Serbia, which again encounters the problem
of Kosovo. Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) is the only FRY political party with
representation in the Parliament which decidedly supports the regionalization of
FRY, while the parties which represent Kosovo Albanians, due to the nature of
common strategy whose goal is the independence for Kosovo, reject this concept
because is doesn't contain elements of statehood.
Unitary State
The transformation of FRY into a classic unitary state is one of the proposals
which doesn't have significant public and political support. Apart from the
Serb Radical Party (SRS) led by Vojislav Seselj, which is on the extreme right
as far as its national policy is concerned, no other political party in FRY, with
representation in the Parliament, has expressed support for this proposal; this
proposal goes against contemporary trends in theory of territorial organization
which assume wide decentralization and high degree of self-rule (even SRS within
its concept of unitary state allows for wide degree of local self-rule). The
ruling Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) and its coalition partner United Yugoslav
Left (JUL) are against any changes in the present constitution of Serbia. They
believe that the present constitution already contains territorial autonomy
for Kosovo and Metohija. The preservation of the existing state is, so to
speak, the starting point for the negotiations with the Kosovo Albanians about the
ways to establish the functioning autonomy in Kosovo, which is listed
by the international community as a precondition for the removal of the "outer
wall of sanctions". The ruling party would demonstrate its good will through
visible reduction in repression and general respect of human rights.
Independent Kosovo
The option for independence for Kosovo has not been rejected by the International
community as totally unacceptable but is assumes that the borders can only be
changed peacefully with full agreement of both sides involved. However, having
in mind the mood of the public and main political factors in Serbia and FRY,
who decidedly reject such an option, the independence for Kosovo can only be
achieved through an armed conflict, which both sides are trying to avoid. The supporters
of the "step by step" approach among the Kosovo Albanians, recognize this reality
and support the transformation of Kosovo into a republic or confederal unit
which would lay ground for a possible painless secession in the future. The
attempt at secession with the status of an autonomous region would set a precedent
which would encourage minority communities in other states, which form a compact
majority in certain territory, to follow the same path: this would transform
ethnic problems into a global security problem. The danger in the establishment of
independent Kosovo is not only that the official Belgrade would oppose the secession,
but also in the inclination of the newly independent state to try to unify with
the neighboring territories with Albanian majority, which in itself would endanger
security and stability in the region. Still this option is supported by the
strongest political party of Kosovo Albanians, Democratic Party of Kosovo (DSK);
this option is the consensus platform of the Kosovo Albanians in the negotiations
with the parties from Serbia and FRY in New York.
Kosovo in Albania
Annexation of Kosovo by Albania is the idea supported by the most hard line
wing within the Albanian nationalist movement - the followers of the academician Rexhep
Qosja. According to that idea, Kosovo would become a part of a single Albanian
state in the Balkans. Namely all "Albanian lands", i.e. territories with majority
Albanian population (such as Western Macedonia, a part of Montenegro,
Bujanovac, Presevo and Medveda municipalities in the south of Serbia, a part of Greece...)
would unite with Albania. However, after the disturbances in Albania, caused
by the collapse of "pyramid schemes" promoted by private banks, which pushed Albania
to the brink of a civil war, this idea has lost support on both sides of the border:
Albanians in Albania, facing the problem of survival and civil war on the regional
and ethnic basis, do not see Kosovo as a high priority political problem, while
the Kosovo Albanians aren't in the mood to, in the name of great romantic ideals,
join the poor and quarrelsome brothers in the mother country.
Division of Kosovo
The division of Kosovo based on ethnic, economic and/or cultural-historic criteria
is the proposal which implies numerous conceptual and practical problems in
establishing a border which would be acceptable for both sides and is, consequently,
a high risk scenario. Another similar proposal is the establishment
of two entities, as in the "Dayton Bosnia", which allows close links with
"mother countries". The story about the division of Kosovo, which is usually
linked with the academician Dobrica Cosic, the first president of FRY, has
sent waves through the Kosovo and also Serbian political scenes and even the wider
region, after the speech by the president of the Serb Academy of Science and Arts (SANU)
Aleksandar Despic at the yearly SANU meeting in June 1996. Both ruling party (SPS)
and the opposition have rejected the division paying attention to the voters and
the imminent federal and local elections (November 1996). Albanian Kosovo leaders
have given a positive assessment of this proposal; however, in their interpretation
Kosovo would secede in its present administrative borders, with possible
small modification of borders based on the principle "part of Kosovo for a part
of south Serbia".
Protectorate
International Protectorate as "modus vivendi" is a transitional solution which
would allow painless integration, separation or some other, permanent solution.
This solution has until now mostly been proposed by the Kosovo Albanians. According
to this idea, Kosovo would be demilitarized and put under civilian
administration of a suitable international body for a limited period of time;
after the end of that period the population of Kosovo would decide about
its future status. DSK leader, Ibrahim Rugova, has also spoken about the protectorate;
his emphasis was on the short duration of the protectorate and the ultimate
goal : sovereign state. President of the Demochristian party of Kosovo, Mark
Krasniqi has also supported the international protectorate as a "first step towards
a definite and just solution"; independent Albanian intellectuals of "pro-European
reputation" such as Veton Surroi and Skllezen Maliqi have also expressed support
for this solution.
Consociation
Those who propose consociation, usually theoreticians of civic democratic orientation,
believe that in multinational and otherwise heterogeneous states, where political
parties, educational institutions, mass media, non governmental organizations and
non-political associations are formed along the lines of divisions in the society,
political pluralism should be enriched by consociative democracy. Consociative
democracy is, according to its ideologues, the kind of democratic system appropriate
for ethnically, religiously, culturally or ideologically diverse societies.
Consociative democracy has four main characteristics: a) grand coalition of political
leaders of all significant segments in all important state institutions; b)
all decisions are reached by consensus, with the possibility of veto in areas
which are determined in advance; c) all segments must be proportionally represented in public
institutions and the same principle must be respected in the allocation of the
public funds; d) high degree of independence of every segment regarding the
"internal" questions. Critics of this proposal, on both Serb and Albanian sides
emphasis that a kind of consociation existed in the Constitution from 1974 and
that it turned out to be unsuccessful; also, the local social-historical
context is different from the context in the countries in which consociation has
been successfully applied (the Netherlands, Austria...). Nevertheless, keeping
in mind all the objections to this proposal, it should be mentioned that the
dominant characteristic of the former Yugoslavia was the lack of democracy:
the elites in member republics were not constituted by the will of the people
expressed in free elections; therefore it would be more appropriate to
characterize the old system as "consociative autocracy", than the consociative
democracy. On the other hand, talk about "paragons" doesn't have to imply
application of models developed elsewhere, but, on the contrary, the application of
the model to the concrete social and historical context.
Eclectic Construction
Eclectic combination of decentralization (provinces), regionalization and consociation
(the author of the proposal is professor in the Law department of the Belgrade
University, Dragoljub Popovic) is based on the two member federation of Serbia
and Montenegro and focuses on the re-organization of Serbia. Namely, the idea is to
establish 5 to 7 autonomous regions in Serbia. Regions would consist of municipalities
which would be much smaller than the present ones. Some consociative institutions
would also be a part of this eclectic construction, for example the option for
minority veto which would be used in different levels of territorial organization,
but restrictively, only in the areas determined in the Serbian Constitution
or, alternatively, a regional legal act. The author also envisages proportional
representation in the local and regional government of every list which wins more than 20 percent of the vote
in local or regional elections... This proposal is
relatively recent (April 1997) so it hasn't been reviewed yet; judging by
other proposals and objections regarding those proposals, due to the eclectic
nature of the proposal, most of the objections regarding any of the included
concepts apply to this proposal. In addition, the proposal can be criticized
as contradictory.
War
An armed conflict is considered last, not as the least likely, but rather as the
least desirable outcome. Both Serb and Albanian sides would prefer to avoid
a war, except for the extremists on both sides who are, by their nature,
inclined to such conflicts. The "International Community" would also like to
avoid a war; nevertheless the war will be almost unavoidable if either one of the
sides approaches the Kosovo problem irresponsibly. By pointing the way (autonomy
within FRY), methods (dialogue) and offering its services (mostly through OESC),
the "international community" is actually the most significant insurance against
a war in Kosovo. Peace in this region will largely depend on the decisiveness of
its most important members, while a temporary or permanent solution depends
above all on the political wisdom of the leaders of Serbs and Kosovo Albanians.
Unfortunately, many recent historical examples, most strikingly the break up of
the former Yugoslavia, have demonstrated that political wisdom is definitively in low
supply in the region. Hence the possibility of a war shouldn't be rejected.
A war could be: a) a local conflict limited to Kosovo (highly unlikely), with
two outcomes; either a "burnt land" type of operation similar to the operations
"Storm" and "Flash" in Serb majority regions in Croatia, or a guerrilla and terrorist
conflict with Kosovo Albanians if the first approach fails; b) a war would most
likely spread to other parts of the Balkans, mostly those with Albanian population,
but possibly also others; c) large scale conflict (very unlikely).
Dialogue
By pointing out to the authorities in Serbia and FRY what they need to do in order
to have the sanctions completely lifted (high degree of autonomy for Kosovo
Albanians) and to Kosovo Albanians where they can expect support (human rights and
autonomy) and what they must give up (secession) the representatives of the "international
community" provided a framework for a future political activity in this region.
The sooner this framework is accepted as a political reality the sooner the relationship
between Albanians and Serbs and their political elites will normalize, which should also
lead to the stabilization of the political relations in Serbia and FRY in general;
all of this can establish conditions for tolerance and dialogue. Of course the
international pressure will have a positive role only as long as it initiates
the establishment of authentic democratic potential. The most important thing
at this moment in Kosovo is a functional autonomy or self-rule. A "step by
step" approach is more suitable for the Kosovo problem than the "from abstract
to concrete" approach. Therefore, gradual solution of everyday problems will lead
to the solution of global, status problems. In the society such as FRY, basic political
consensus must include Kosovo Albanians, with respect of their right to be different,
which is a precondition for peaceful solution of differences and stable
functioning of the political system.
Translated on 7/30/97
