The OSCE suggested that the law specify that at least 223,000 votes cast by Montenegrin citizens, corresponding to 50 percent plus one vote of all registered voters, are needed for a valid decision in a referendum. This suggestion corresponds to the demand of the coalition "Together for Yugoslavia".
The proposal of the Liberal Alliance (LSCG) and the SDP, that the turnout of more than 50 percent of all registered voters not be a requirement for a successful referendum and that a valid decision required only support of more than 50 percent of voters participating in a referendum, was assessed as 'a step back in comparison with the current legal norms in Montenegro".
"The issue of suitable majority is of crucial importance for building of trust, both by local and international public, in a possible future referendum process. The OSCE Bureau for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights cannot recommend dropping of all qualified and established mechanisms because the legitimacy of a referendum with participation of less than 50 percent of registered voters would be open to questioning and criticism both within the country and abroad. The attempt to apply pressure on the opposition with such means is likely to backfire and may result in further increase in political polarization," states the expert opinion of the OSCE about the draft referendum law.
The OSCE emphasizes that there are no clear international standards about the required majorities needed for valid referendum decisions, but that "the best international practice indicates that some level of established or qualified majority is desirable as it reduces the likelihood that the result of a referendum would be disputed, and preserves stability". The expert opinion adds that the condition of qualified majority reduces the likelihood that a referendum will be repeated after small shifts in public opinion.
According to the OSCE opinion, if the turnout in a referendum is 65 percent of registered voters, a valid pro-independence vote would require 76.9 percent vote in favor; if the turnout is 70 percent, qualified majority would be 71.4 percent; if the turnout is 75 percent, the qualified majority would be 66.7 percent, while with the turnout of 80 percent, the qualified majority would be 62.5 percent.
Comparing this data with the number of registered voters, the OSCE calculation boils down to the recommendation that support of more than a half of all registered voters, or more than 223,000 voters, is needed for renewal of Montenegrin statehood. The OSCE has also stuck with the view that two questions can be asked in a referendum, while the solution that the period between a calling of a referendum and the actual vote should not be shorter than two months or longer than six months was assessed as reasonable.
As the draft referendum law states that results of a referendum oblige the parliament, and there are different interpretations of the Montenegrin constitution regarding that issue, the OSCE recommends that the Constitutional Court of Montenegro "address that issue before any referendum is held".
"The OSCE Bureau for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights recommends that political parties in Montenegro work together on reaching consensus regarding legal regulations for the holding of a referendum, given that the future of the country and stability of the whole region is at stake. The expert opinion of the OSCE Bureau for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights about the draft referendum law should not be in any case interpreted as support for the holding of referendum or approval of a certain referendum question. The opinion was prepared at request of Montenegrin authorities, with the aim of giving an assessment of its correspondence to international standards," the yesterday's OSCE press release states.