CEDEM's analysts based on the results of a large opinion poll estimate the result of a referendum: 55:45 for independent Montenegro

Vijesti, Podgorica, Montenegro, FR Yugoslavia, October 30, 2000

This is the first public opinion poll since the federal elections and the ousting of Milosevic's regime. 48.1 percent of participants agreed with the question "Do you agree that Montenegro should be an independent state?", 38.9 disagreed, while 7.8 percent stated that they haven't made up their mind and 5.7 percent that they would not take part in a referendum. CEDEM's analysts claim that, if this ratio remains, with the assumption that the turnout is 80 percent, the result of the referendum would be 55 percent for independence and 45 against.

They remind that public opinion polls always try to map the sample on all the voters and that consequently some of the replies are always "I do not have a formed opinion on this issue", or "I don't know" and so on, or "I wouldn't vote" and "I wouldn't participate in a referendum". The CEDEM asserts that such respondents are likely to abstain from voting which means that the replies to questions in connection with voting (elections, referendum, etc.) should be recalculated to include only the likely voters.

If in a possible referendum the question "Do you agree that Montenegro stay in a common state with the Republic of Serbia based on the Constitution from 1992 with amendments from 2000?" is posed to the voters, 31.2 percent would agree, 48.1 would be against, 10 percent does not have a formed opinion, while 10.6 percent would not vote. 43.8 percent would support the question "Do you agree that Serbia and Montenegro form a Union of Serbia and Montenegro based on the platform of the Montenegrin government?", 36 percent would be against, 12.2 do not have a formed opinion, while 8 percent would not vote.

According to this public opinion poll, 43.7 percent of voters believe that the Montenegrin Parliament should call a referendum in which the citizens would vote about the state-legal status of Montenegro. A referendum is a solution, but we should wait, believes 31.2 percent of participants, while 17.8 percent are decidedly against a referendum since "in spite of everything Montenegro should stay in an unconditional commonwealth with Serbia".

To the question "how should the state status of Montenegro be resolved?", 36 percent of poll participants responded that they support independence, 26.1 percent would replace the present state by the "Union of Serbia and Montenegro based on the platform of the Montenegrin government", 19 percent supports "Montenegro in the Yugoslav Federation based on the 1992 Constitution and amendments from 2000", while 10.2 percent support "Montenegro in centralized Yugoslavia (one president, one parliament...)", and 7.9 percent do not have a specific opinion on this issue.

If the elections for the Montenegrin Parliament were held next week, which party would you vote for?

If the coalition "To live better" (M. Djukanovic) did not exist, who would you vote for?