Analysis: How can elections in FR Yugoslavia impact Croatia?
Serbian Quasi-democracy and Croatian Quasi-independence
A change of government in Serbia has been given so much significance as if all of our interests depended on that; by agreeing with that the Croatian authorities are implicitly admitting that actually everything depends on Serbia, rather than on Croatia. Serbia is the ultimate goal of the U.S. in the Balkans. With its pacification and full control, the American interests will obtain an open path to the east
by Zoran VUKMAN
Slobodna Dalmacija, Split, Croatia, September 24, 2000
The threat of chaos and civil war has fully permeated Serbia on the eve of presidential elections. It would be truly a miracle if that Balkan slum does not slide into a civil war during the next few days. It is very obvious that NATO is also counting on such an outcome. The Alliance is prepared to react with its forces to possible clashes between Milosevic's forces and the forces opposing Milosevic. It is most likely that these clashes will start in Montenegro, and they are very likely in any case. If Milosevic looses the election he will definitely not give up power and his Police and Army will clash with his pseudo-democratic opponents, while it can be expected that the Americans will intervene on their side. If on the other hand Milosevic wins, then the U.S. will have no other choice but to initiate a bloody coup in which Milosevic would almost certainly be killed. Therefore, in that case a civil war, although brief, would be viewed as an acceptable risk in case of a violent overthrow of Milosevic.
Cheerleaders from Zagreb
A deadline has been given: November 2000. By then the U.S. must "sort out" Serbia because the summit of the Balkan countries planned for November in Zagreb is meaningless for the U.S. super-power without Serbia with a new regime with a made up democratic face and an unchanged greater Serbian heart. Such Serbia is more dangerous for Croatia than isolated Milosevic's Serbia. However, within NATO's regional scenario, Croatia is indirectly placed in new military and geopolitical danger because our military is in practice under American oversight, which means that in case of an American intervention in Serbia, and especially in Montenegro, the Croatian Army would be pulled in a new war with Serbia for the sake of American interests. One should not exclude the possibility that the Americans will not only use our naval and land bases, but also a part of our Navy and Army. Will the Croatian military be turned into an American Praetorian Guard in the Balkans?
Policies of president Mesic and Prime Minister Racan have brought us into such an inferior position. They agreed that Croatia should motivate and become a cheerleader for Serbian pseudo-democratic changes. Mesic has been for moths behaving like an American envoy for the West Balkans. While Croatia is choking in its problems, he is busy with the "democratization" of Serbia. That absurd Croatian auto-destructiveness was on display several times during the last few months. Racan and Mesic had more discussions with Clinton regarding Serbia than regarding Croatia, and recently a well-known Serb-American "clown", Milan Panic, said that he had begged Mesic to work on the democratization of Serbia and that the Croatian president had already been working on that! A change of government in Serbia has been given so much significance as if all of our interests depended on that; by agreeing with that the Croatian authorities are implicitly admitting that actually everything depends on Serbia, rather than on Croatia. Serbia is the ultimate goal of the U.S. in the Balkans. With its pacification and full control, the American interests will obtain an open path to the east.
All that is a consequence of the acceptance of the Croatian-Serbian analogy, and lies about the identical political models in Croatia and Serbia. According to such constructions, it is now only left to overthrow Milosevic's criminal regime after a similar "criminal" regime was overthrown in Croatia. A nationalist brotherhood in crimes between Croatia and Serbia should be blamed for the war, rather than Milosevic's greater-Serbian Nazi policy.
Conflict With Russia
Once such criteria of making things relative and drawing parallels between essentially dissimilar events and entities are accepted, then it is not surprising that the genocidal character of the Serb Balkan expansionism is being hidden and given clemency, since under American oversight that expansionism can become very sophisticated and useful for American goals. However, the American strategists never sufficiently take into account that Serbs are essentially an irrational people. If a civil war does take place in Serbia, no force or mechanism could guarantee that such a conflict would remain localized, that Russia, whose interests in the Balkans are dramatically endangered, would stay out of it and under control. In some futuristic, but definitely realistic, scenarios a clash between NATO and Russia in the Balkans is quite possible. There is no need to stress that in that case we've thrown our fate with a super-power that would use us for its war goals.
Such blindness, such lack of foresight of both the Croatian politicians and the widest public is absolutely incomprehensible. They have placed themselves in service of the American military and policy as if we were yet another insignificant American colony, a province or a vassal state with minimal sovereignty, which ridiculously rattles its arms during military exercises under the auspices of the American military power and demonstrates that yet again we are prepared to die for somebody else's interests.
It is too late to bail out, at least to bail out on our own initiative since we do not have the political leadership that would be prepared to play the card of neutrality, nor has such an idea ever existed. Even now we do not have such players, nor an idea of strategy that would examine our relations with Russia and start our offensive towards the Russian East.
It is incomprehensible that Croatia has no independent diplomatic initiative towards Russia. With Russian president Putin, as a Russian nationalist, a different foreign political strategy and with different politicians in power in Croatia, we could find common interests in this region. For example, political obstruction of the Stability Pact is at this moment in our interest, although the current authorities are not able to recognize and realize that because they have been installed in power in order to implement that American project. The interests of Croatia and Russia would be aligned there, if Croatia were led by a moderate government including moderate nationalists and anti-globalists.
On the other hand, geopolitical salvation for Croatia from the Stability Pact as a new framework for a new Yugoslavia, no matter how paradoxical that sounds, could have three elements: first, Russian obstruction of the Pact, secondly a civil war in Serbia and its total destruction, and third element, which these authorities are not able to comprehend - allow Russians economic access to the Adriatic Sea and a corridor to a warm sea. That move would be a check-mate to the U.S. and its dirty intentions with respect to Croatia. According to the present balance of power, such an outcome seems unlikely, but it is not impossible in some future developments. It is only necessary that we be politically aware that we must not glorify the U.S. and harbor prejudice with respect to Russia. It is clear that Russia does not support Milosevic because they like him or because they agree with his policies, but out of purely pragmatic reasons, the same that were responsible for the American support for the Balkan butcher in the past. He is at the moment useful for their interests. One more thing; Milosevic was not created by Russians, but exactly by Americans, while at this moment he is an obstacle to their continued expansion towards East and geopolitical encirclement of Russia. As long as Milosevic is in power in Serbia, Croatia will be safe and secure from a new Yugoslavia. The moment disguised chetniks [derogatory term for Serbs; originally royalist Serb guerrillas from WWII; committed crimes against Croats and Bosnian Muslims] take power form open chetniks, Croatia will be in danger of again becoming a victim of its stupidity and servile mentality.
If a new Yugoslavia happens to us, then we do not deserve a fate better than Belgrade.
Translated on November 22, 2000