by Slobodan VASKOVIC
At this moment it is certain that the new executive authorities, according to the information obtained by Reporter, will be multiethnic. The new government will include Bosniak and Croat ministers, who will head at least two portfolios. Both ministries will be headed by Bosniaks and Croats who spent the whole war and its aftermath in the Serb entity.
Also, it is almost definite that the new government will not be formed without support of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS), while it is still uncertain in which way that support will be rewarded. Whether by direct participation of the SDS party members in the work of the government or by inclusion of experts nominated by the SDS!?
Why with SDS support: The key man for such denouement in the RS is (already seen) Prime Minister designate Mladen Ivanic, who did not succumb to open pressures to form a government without the SDS support.
However, it is still uncertain whether Ivanic has or desires the other possibility? He neither has it, nor wants it for several equally important reasons.
The first important reason prompting Ivanic not to form a government without the SDS support is that such a government would be backed up by a very unstable majority in the Parliament that would totally hobble the government and prevent highly necessary radical moves in all spheres or its activities. Such a government would during its mandate achieve only one thing - it would prove that it is possible to form a government without the SDS. At the same time it would absolve the present government of the responsibility for the unprecedented flourishing of crime and corruption and looting of hundreds of millions of dollars. Ivanic cannot allow himself to do something like that, because that would be his political death. It is enough to recall the fate of Biljana Plavsic, who managed to almost destroy the SDS using the story about the need to fight crime and corruption, only to die politically because of later inconsistence regarding that issue.
The second reason is that Ivanic does not want a competitor for the good graces of the international community, who could offer more than he can. He assessed that a coalition with Milorad Dodik was more likely to harm his influence with the international community because the president of the SNSD is not a man who can stand to see anyone in front of himself.
The best examples for that are the destruction of the SPRS and the SNS and placing of parts of these parties under Dodik's full control. Therefore elementary logic forced Ivanic to take a slight risk and take the SDS for a partner due to its low rating with the international community representatives. In a partnership with them, Ivanic will apply exactly "Dodik's principle" - the SDS will be blamed for all possible mistakes and obstructions, while Ivanic's demands to the SDS will be justified by the "need for the further improvement of the SDS rating with the international community". More specifically, by doing this, Ivanic puts himself in the position in which both he and his party, the PDP, are winners, while the international community and the SDS are "doomed" to rely on his mediation. The former because they do not want to be seen too often with the latter, and the latter because they are not allowed to be seen too often with the former.
The third reason leading the SDS to the government, either as a party or through experts, is the renewed influence of Belgrade in this parts, after the election of Vojislav Kostunica for the president of FR Yugoslavia. Ever since his entry to the Federation Palace, Kostunica hasn't hidden his support for the "expressed will of the people", as he refers to the SDS [election victory], and his opposition to the "imposed solutions", as he in his legalistic speak refers to Milorad Dodik. After Kostunica several times explicitly stated his views, Ivanic did not find it difficult to "push" the story that the "will of the people" is the principle that should finally begin to be applied in these parts. Moreover, Ivanic's convictions were definitely consolidated by the change of the administration in Washington, which, of course, does not guarantee a radical change of the American policy in the Balkans or in Bosnia-Hercegovina (BH), but augurs the arrival of new people from the US to the Balkans. Consequently the explicit demand of the US ambassador in BH, Thomas Miller, that the SDS should not be allowed anywhere near the government, at this moment objectively does not have the same strength and weight as it did have before the recent elections in the US. Otherwise, there would be no dilemmas regarding the SDS participation in the new government. But the attitude of the American diplomat points out another cause of conflict that can strongly influence the local political turmoil.
In all public appearances, Miller does not fail to emphasize that he speaks on behalf of the US administration, rather than on behalf of the international community, thereby revealing huge disagreements within the international community regarding the future course of action in the RS and BH. The fact that in Sarajevo the leaders of the SDS signed a ten-point agenda, which was a sort of a permit to assume power, in presence of the High Representative for Bosnia-Hercegovina Wolfgang Petritsch on the same day when in Banja Luka Miller rejected any possibility of the SDS participating in the government, is the best indication of the extent of dispute between two most important and most influential politicians in Bosnia-Hercegovina. This dispute can not be long lasting because of the interests of the international community and the US in this region, and the price for the alignment of the relations within the international community, according to the information obtained by Reporter, will be the departure of either Thomas Miller or Wolfgang Petritsch from BH. Or even of both of them.
SDS or experts: Exactly because of the fact that he does not know who will win this international fight, Ivanic is deliberately prolonging the formation of the new government including members of the SDS. The second reason for his tactical procrastination is that there is a realistic possibility that in the Federation BH neither the SDA nor the HDZ will participate in the government, so that Ivanic, in case of an open alliance with the SDS would be denounced as a politician who is pumping fresh blood to the national parties. The situation at the BH level is similar, which is another sign for the president of the PDP that the most profitable course of action at this point is to wait. If it weren't so, Ivanic could as early as tomorrow form a government that could count on the support of the alliance made up from the SDS, the PDP, the SPRS, the DNS, the RS Retired Persons Party, and the RS Democratic Party.
Instead, Ivanic is trying to push through a compromise solution in which the SDS would nominate experts to his government, on the condition that they are not members of the SDS. This outcome would not be disappointing even for the American ambassador, because he could inform the headquarters that he has prevented the entry of nationalists in the executive authorities in the RS, "forgetting" who nominated the experts. That would prove that the concept of governments in the entities and on the state level without national parties is a possibility. The Europeans, who mostly tacitly approved the entry of the SDS in the government, would also not be opposed to this solution, since it would give them more tactical space in cooperation with the authorities in the Serb entity. Ivanic would benefit the most, because he would have the full control of the government, and respect the will of the people, as well as the guardians of the Dayton Agreement. All in all, Miller sated and all the sheep safe and sound.
In case of such a denouement it would not be surprising if Dodik's SNSD, as well as the DSP, the SNS, the SDS, the Party for BH, the SDPBH, and the NHI, all expressed support for such a government. They could justify their support by the fact that the SDS does not participate in the government. Therefore, everyone would be happy and pleased and everyone would be the majority, and no one the opposition, which would open numerous possibilities for the combinations in the parliament. Consequently it is unlikely that the SDS will agree to this happy solution, since no one could guarantee them that the experts would protect their interests in the executive authorities or that they would not be pushed into the opposition as soon as the SDS representatives in the government provide legitimacy to the new government.
That is why Ivanic is facing the second round of discussions with Miller, Petritsch, and the SDS in which he will try to convince them that he is the one who cares about the power the least, and cares about the peace in the house the most. In the meantime, the tenants are left to try to enjoy the coming holidays and hope that the political agreements will be made before the next elections.