"Speculation" is the word that the prime minister of the Republic of Srpska (RS), Milorad Dodik, most frequently uses to describe any opinion he runs across that doesn't agree with his own.
After the New York Declaration, Dodik is faced not only with differing opinions but also with the Declaration itself, which he has been trying to explain since his return from the U.S. All of his interpretations regarding the introduction of a common passport, which will be the same for all citizens of BH, and the border patrol, the ethnic composition of which will be based on the 1991 census, can be reduced to his favorite term. Until the dust settles. The prime minister claims that the document itself is being incorrectly interpreted and that his opponents are "speculating" against the interests of RS.
The zealous advocate of institutions at the entity level is, therefore, either confirming that he very frequently does not read what he signs or that he is lying. That he's in trouble is further proven by his waiting for Zivko Radisic, who signed the Declaration, to return from Istanbul so that they can explain together how, on the anniversary of the signing of the peace agreement in Dayton, they went to negotiate the euthanasia of the Republic of Srpska, whose rights from the original Dayton agreement have slowly dwindled to those of an average province with a negligible degree of autonomy.
"The Presidency of Bosnia-Hercegovina reaffirmed its commitment to the realization of a fully integrated, multiethnic state with two multiethnic entities, while respecting the unique character of its three equal constituent peoples," states the New York Declaration which represents the further realization of the dream of the Dayton creator, Richard Holbrooke. "By this act, a major step has been taken towards consolidating the progress of the past four years and, in doing so, helping Bosnia take another step towards a unitary, single, democratic country," enthusiastic Holbrooke told the Security Council. He did not neglect to praise the Presidency which, by its support for a common Bosnian passport, the formation of a common border patrol and establishment of a common staff, had show its dedication to the full implementation of the Council of Ministers and centralized administration in Bosnia-Hercegovina.
According to prime minister Dodik, Richard Holbrooke himself must be incorrectly interpreting the Declaration.
Believe me : "As far as, I would say, the alarming piece of news concerning passports is concerned, I must say that this absolutely is not the case," said the RS premier decisively, even claiming his own credit for it: "What was adopted was our proposal regarding the establishment of a common central database. I think that this is as a result of the fact that in the past federal institutions have issued passports to suspicious persons."
Additionally, Dodik has called on the masses not to believe everything they read in Dnevni Avaz when they can believe him and Radisic instead. Radisic would explain everything as soon as he returned from Istanbul.
And how exactly are Dodik and Radisic going to explain what OHR spokesman Oleg Milisic told Reporter, that "the High Representative supports the Declaration of the Presidency that a common passport would be introduced"?
Milisic also expressed some concern regarding the vicissitudes of the prime minister's position, at the same time offering him this advice: "The most recent statements by Mr. Dodik seem to negate this. In this instance, he would do well to consult with his president in the Presidency" [Radisic].
Just in case Milorad Dodik is getting ready to call Milisic a speculator as well, the other OHR spokesman, James Ferguson, has already confirmed what his colleague has said: "Dodik was in New York. He knows full well what was agreed upon."
Dark forces: Having escaped to Istanbul, Radisic has managed to avoid the first offensive, leaving Nebojsa Radmanovic, a member of the executive board of the Socialist Party of RS, to put out the fire.
Radmanovic sees far more in all this than even the prime minister's "speculation" - "dark and militant forces which have failed to achieve their war goals are still in power". He sees all this despite the fact that, according to his own admission, he has no knowledge of the original document. He, too, is waiting for Radisic to come back from Istanbul.
The common passport which will bear only the name of Bosnia and Herzegovina will also mean more rigorous control along the entire border of BH. Although the time frame for the introduction of the passport has yet to be defined, it is certain that "with the support of the High Representative" a passport will soon be needed to cross the border into the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia - and probably 50 German marks to secure a visa as well. All this will be supervised by yet another segment of the New York Declaration - the common border patrol.
According to the Declaration, this agency will be in service by December 31 of this year, regardless of whether the agreement based on the Declaration is ratified by the BH Parliament or not.
The most controversial part of the document which relates to the border patrol is the ethnic composition of its employees. Apparently this clause of the Declaration, which states that the ethnic composition of the border patrol will be based on the 1991 census, did not alarm prime minister Dodik in the least.
Without hesitation, he placated the uneasy public with a blatant lie: "A consensus was achieved with respect to the ethnic structure of the border patrol which will reflect the current situation at the entity level, while only the division which will be formed under the jurisdiction of the council of ministers and the ministry of civil affairs will reflect the 1991 census. This may turn out to be more favorable to us than the ratio of one to two thirds between RS and the Federation Bosnia-Hercegovina." The prime minister did not fail to classify this statement among the other victories for which he successfully fought at Dayton. Of course, this would be confirmed by the other winner at Dayton, Zivko Radisic, just as soon as he returned.
Winners at Dayton: There isn't a single member of the Government or the Social Democratic Party who doubts that the member of the BH Presidency will confirm the proud words of Dodik to the effect that "RS has avoided a completely unfavorable plan of organizing the border patrol which was proposed by the OHR and succeeded in reaching this well-balanced and acceptable plan for RS".
Among other people, it's another story. Being a polite man, the OHR spokesman did not say that Dodik is lying. He only said: "What premier Milorad Dodik is saying with respect to the ethnic composition of the border patrol reflecting the 1991 census only in its main headquarters is not correct."
With respect to jurisdiction, as well, the prime minister has his own version of the story: "The border patrol has the authority to control documents upon entry and exit, to perform immigration and emigration duties which are typical for the border patrol and to carry out activities in regard to smuggling and other criminal acts."
Who this patrol force will report to is not stated in the Dayton agreement. In the Declaration it is clear. It answers to the Ministry for Civil Affairs and Communications which will be headed by a director and two deputies. The system of rotation to the directorship is a compromise, but there is no compromise with respect to its authority. According to Oleg Milisic, should there be an overlap of jurisdiction within the border zone, the border patrol, whose headquarters will be in Sarajevo, will have primacy.
Dodik will not allow anyone the right to say that what this represents is a revision of Dayton. He is not worried by the fact that the most tenacious analysts cannot find the points of the New York Declaration in the 1996 Peace Agreement. "Speculation," the prime minister will say leisurely. If someone should tell him that the latest Daytonian document contains an open clause which opens "the Dayton Constitution" up to changes dressed up as enhancements, he would probably consider such a person his enemy. Unless the young lion of the Social Democrats should chance upon some more eloquent term.
Nevertheless, he will need a lot of time to catch up to Radisic, who has found the ideal solution for the disappearance of the Dayton peace agreement altogether.
Spiritualists:In the style of the most dedicated spiritualists, the member of the Presidency from RS stood before the Security Council. Showing great experience, he invoked the Spirit of Dayton without using a crystal ball or a ouija board. Only experience. And he was right to do so because increasingly all that is left of the Agreement is a spirit which is invoked less and less frequently.
The rapid demise of Dayton and the extinction of RS is also foreseen by the sociologist Aleksa Djilas, who compares the current situation with the exodus of the Serbs from Croatia and from Kosovo. "In one year we will have the provocation of an incident, then a military offensive against eastern Bosnia and advancement to the Drina River. The rest of RS in western Bosnia, economically depleted, will reintegrate itself of its own accord," Djilas forecasts gloomily, noting that the creator of Dayton himself hinted as much.
"We fought and are fighting for a single, unitary Bosnia, with one government, one army and one currency," said Richard Holbrooke in New York in 1997.
At that time his only allies in Bosnia-Hercegovina could be found among Bosniaks. Now he has found them in RS as well.
The responsibilities of the SBS will extend to 10 kms from the international border of Bosnia-Hercegovina, except in those cases where the distance to the entity boundary line is less than 10 kms, in which case the responsibilities of the SBS will extend to half the distance from the international border to the entity boundary line.
The ethnic composition of the personnel of the SBS shall be based on the 1991 census.
The Presidency agreed that the state government will be responsible for serving as a central database and managing authority for Bosnia-Hercegovina passports, and that the Presidents will propose to the Parliament of Bosnia-Hercegovina and strongly support the creation of a single national passport carrying only the name Bosnia-Hercegovina on its cover in both the Cyrillic and Latin scripts.
G.DJ.
G.T.
With this government and this Sloga [Unity] Coalition, I am certain that many violations of Dayton will be implemented even before the target deadlines.
We will do everything possible to ensure that this Declaration is not accepted in order to save RS. We keep repeating like parrots that we are against the unification of Bosnia-Hercegovina but Sloga is working on the disappearance of RS and that is the price for bringing this government to power.
G.T.
Our representatives should not have gone there without soliciting the position of the National Parliament.
G.T.
The army is, according to Dayton, completely within the jurisdiction of the entities. Any kind of common units must go through the parliamentary process of the entities, which need to approve the transfer of a portion of their jurisdiction with respect to the military to common institutions.
G.T.
The position of our government and our ministry is clear: criteria for multiethnicity which were agreed upon based on the 1997 census will continue to be implemented.
We gave many suggestions both with respect to the so-called headquarters as well as regarding the organization and number of regional offices.
The news regarding the common border patrol and common passports has reached the border crossing between FR Yugoslavia and RS - Raca.
At first glance, only the usual crowds. The atmosphere of insecurity is felt in an ordinary cafe. A border guard who no longer works at Raca is bitter toward the prime minister: "He will betray us all", he interjects into the cafe talk of borders and passports. "Will our passports still be valid?" asks the waiter. The angry border guard continues to explain to the curious guests: "BH will have just one passport - with Cyrillic and Latin alphabet headings. You'll have to show it even if you only want to go to Serbia." Another guest adds, on a somewhat conciliatory note: "Dodik says that passports will not change." The man in the blue uniform does not allow dissenting opinions: "He's lying," he shoots back.
The members of the border patrol will not talk to reporters without written permission from the headquarters. They don't want any problems. "There's no story here, you're wasting your time," they say curtly. Even the most innocent photo is prohibited.
The tension is present even without reporters. IPTF [international police] shows up. Several border guards are taken away for interviews. No one in Raca will tell us why. Everyone is expecting a position in the new border patrol and no one talks much. Some of them will be selected.
A little further away, dozens of trucks are waiting to cross the border. Will the new patrol bring better times or entry visas for the neighboring states and more rigorous customs controllers - none of the guests in the cafe can say.
Lj.J.
The New York Declaration: Euthanasia for the Republic of Srpska
By Igor Gajic and Maja Bjelajac Reporter, Banja Luka, Srpska, B-H, November 24 1999
In the style of the most dedicated spiritualists, the member of the Presidency from RS invoked the Spirit of Dayton without using a crystal ball or a ouija board. He was right to do so because increasingly all that is left of the Agreement is a spirit which is invoked less and less frequently.
Excerpts from the New York Declaration relating to the common border patrol and passports:
The State Border Service shall have only those duties and authorities set forth in the draft law as necessary for the fulfillment of its task of protecting the borders of Bosnia-Hercegovina. These duties shall include in particular:
Returns
Confidential sources of Reporter close to the RS negotiating team in Dayton and New York claim that Milorad Dodik, the premier of RS, and Zivko Radisic, member of the Bosnian Presidency from RS, have promised Richard Holbrooke that they will soon begin the process of Bosniak returns into individual cities in RS. The same sources cite Banja Luka, Zvornik and Bijeljina (Janja district) as targets, claiming that a "deposit" has already been made on the return of 500 Bosniak families into the center of Zvornik. According to the same claims, Milorad Dodik, in true form, sent a message to Robert Frowick, the head of the OHR Anticorruption Team, advising him that he personally was able to return 400 non-Serbian families to Banja Luka within 30 days.
Predrag Radic, Democratic Patriotic Party of RS
Revision
The president of the Democratic Patriotic Party Predrag Radic stated that the Dayton peace agreement has already been revised, and that the New York Declaration, which was signed by the members of the BH Presidency, is in direct contradiction with the Dayton agreement.
Mirza Hajric, advisor to Alija Izetbegovic
Better with compliments
As this was a free decision of the political representatives who were in New York, I expect them to invest their influence in order to ensure that these decisions are ratified by the appropriate institutions and parliaments. I think that this is not a revision but a progression of Dayton. Common border patrols must be implemented in some way. It is better to do this with the compliments of the Security Council.
Mirko Blagojevic, adting president of the Serb Radical Party of RS
I told you so
At one time I stated that we are offering the Serbian people the best president of the Republic and the best member of the BH Presidency. I said also that Alija Izetbegovic is offering the best he has in RS: Zivko Radisic.
Safet Bico, representative of the CD coalition in the RS Parliament
Whoever is not for it...
This represents a step forward in the implementation of Dayton. Only those who are not for Europe can oppose the New York Declaration.
Ostoja Knezevic, independent representative in the RS parliament
Dayton 2
I do not support the Declaration because it is a revision of Dayton, practically Dayton 2. The National Parliament must make a statement to this effect.
Branko Dokic, member of the BH parliament from RS
A step backward
The law on passports is one of the rare laws in the BH parliament which went through the complete parliamentary procedure. Many other, more important things are not regulated and we are taking a step backward to work on what has already been completed.
Marko Asanin, minister in the BH council of ministers
Compromise
In my opinion, this is an attempt to find a compromise between the census of 1991 and the territorial principle. I think that legitimate reasons exist for the formation of a border patrol but during the process of its organization we need to take into consideration relevant facts and the current situation in BH.
Boro Medakovic, chief of police administration
Multiethnicity in 1997
We proposed the creation of a new law in the Federation and in RS which would regulate approximately the same matters and that the border patrols remain approximately like they are now but that we add a common body which would coordinate the work of the patrols.
Border crossing at Raca
Fear of the unknown
A border guard who no longer works at Raca is bitter toward the prime minister: "He will betray us all."
Translated by Snezana Lazovic in December 1999