This prologue serves as the introduction to the final act of the work "The Disintegration of RS" of which we saw Act One at the last session of the National Parliament.
Even the permission to protagonists to improvise during the course of the performance cannot convince any of them that February 8, the day that the parliamentary session is scheduled to continue, will be followed by just another ordinary day. Until then, the performance will be held on the edge of razor; whoever falls, loses his head.
More than ever before, it is now apparent that RS is separated from the abyss as well as from the reinforcement of her destroyed institutions only by a width of a razor. What direction the RS will go in will depend, proverbially, in greatest measure upon the decisions of the international community, but this time also on the approach of the parliamentary parties of RS. No one has the answer yet to the most important of questions, what to do with RS, not even the international community. Because its approach to date leads us to conclude that it would rather declare that the previous parliamentary session never happened at all and thus maintain the old status quo: RS has no president, the vice-president is enjoying the privileges of a chief of protocol, Dodik is Superman, and the National Parliament is a debating club, where once in a while something "happens": a law or a conclusion, bindingly unbinding by its nature.
Difficulties: However, now anything is possible except a return to the old status quo. The international community will have to decide whether it will defend Milorad Dodik, who it believes will certainly implement their vision of the Dayton agreement and democratization, at any price or whether it will succumb to seeking a new solution, acceptable both to them and possibly to a new parliamentary majority. What is certain is that their final decision will be influenced by the assessment to what extent the new parliamentary majority will be briefed by Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic. If, nonetheless, a new parliamentary majority is created without the support of the international community, the guardians of the Dayton agreement will have only two options: to accept this development or to abolish the National Parliament altogether in order to preserve "the Dodik Project".
This would at the same time mean verifying the protectorate status of RS.
That is why the representatives in the National Parliament are now in great difficulties, conscious of the fact that they are, nonetheless, the protagonists who will determine the further fate of RS, regardless of where the playwrights and the directors are located.
Unity:As a result, Milorad Dodik and Dragutin Ilic, who until relatively recently were Unity partners, have engaged emotionally in this drama, perhaps confirming the theory that all roads lead to Rome: except for the road that all "democratic" prime ministers take to RS, which passes through Laktasi [Dodik's home town]. Their elbowing [a pun: "lakat" or "elbow" is the root word of "Laktasi"] around the prime minister's seat is the most direct proof of the impending collapse of the Unity Coalition, which has been also been projected on the political parties which constitute it. Prime minister Dodik, who for a year and a half now has ruled the ruins of the political scene in RS, has comprehended that the easiest way to stay in the saddle is to destroy the Socialist Party. Reacting to the slaps to his face by the leading socialists - Dragutin Ilic, Zivko Radisic and Petar Djokic - inflicted in the public arena, Dodik responded with a reverberating whack to this trio - by dismissing deputy prime minister Tihomir Gligoric and kicking Ilic out of the seat of the director of the national health fund. Dodik's move, generally speaking, is not surprising nor hastily arrived at because the current Prime Minister is thus pushing the Socialists against the wall and making their renewed integration into Unity impossible. At least not under the present terms.
Partition:The prime minister did not tackle the Socialists unarmed but with the expectation that he would have the support of the international community and of one senior Socialist Party official, Nebojsa Radmanovic, as well. Reporter has learned that representatives of the international community are applying heavy pressure on Ilic, Radisic and Djokic, and threatening them with exclusion from political office altogether if they do not stop working on bringing Dodik down. Reporter's sources in the Socialist Party of RS claim that it is obvious that a schism will ensue within that party. The only question is whether the survivor will be Radmanovic or the trio - Ilic, Radisic and Djokic.
Everything seems to indicate that the trio has nowhere to turn, even if it wanted to. A withdrawal would mean complete political destruction for Ilic and Djokic, while Radisic would definitely become a political midget to be pulled by the nose by whoever cared to do so. It is to be expected that the trio will try to "evacuate" the Socialist ministers from the government and thus intensify the conflict. However, it is questionable whether they will succeed in this venture because the only person who has demonstrated any loyalty is Nenad Suzic, the minister of education. Deputy prime minister Savo Loncar; the minister of health, Zeljko Rodic; and "the mother of the refugees", Miladin Dragicevic, have all become rather disobedient. What is more, Rodic, together with Radmanovic, flung a threat in Radisic's face that they would claim their revenge in the forums of the Socialist Party. Reporter has learned that the parliamentary representatives of this party have been caught up in the great commotion because they do not know which side to support.
Serb National Alliance:The officials and the parliamentary representatives of the Serb National Alliance (SNS) are in a similar position, except for Biljana Plavsic, who has already made her choice. Her choice is Dodik and her reason is simple: the fall of the Prime Minister would mean the political destruction of the former RS president, as well. Now all the representatives belonging to her party are forced to weigh whether they will accept that Mirko Sarovic acted in accordance with what they themselves proposed in the Parliament or whether they will say that they never asked him to assume the duties of the president. The vice-president of the Serb National Alliance, Jovan Mitrovic, read at the last meeting of the Parliament the recommendation of the representatives of that party: that Mirko Sarovic assume the duties of the president or that presidential elections be called. After the reaction of the OHR, Plavsic declared that the high representative was, well, the high representative, that is, that little Mirko could not have it his way. In practical terms: we were just kidding, Jovan Mitrovic didn't read anything. Mitrovic claims that he did, though, and insists that he will uphold what he read.
"The interpretation of the high representative that Sarovic illegally assumed the duties [of the presidency] is unacceptable. If Sarovic is not the president, then the high representative needs to find a solution and declare who is the president. It is unacceptable that the duties of the president, practically, are being performed by the speaker of the parliament and the prime minister. It is acceptable to have the duties of the RS president performed by the speaker of the parliament until the presidential elections; with the understanding, of course, that he cannot perform the duties of speaker of the parliament at the same time," says Mitrovic, emphasizing that the international community must understand that Sarovic's move was only the first step in the resolution of the presidential crisis. The crisis, according to Mitrovic, was not caused by RS but by the international community. He claims that he will defend this position to the end and that he will insist that the Serb National Alliance, finally, define its participation in Unity and its relation to Prime Minister Dodik, and reorganize as a party. If this does not occur at the next meeting of the main board of the SNA, says Mitrovic, he will resign as vice-president of the party. He was unable to say how many SNS representatives currently support his position with respect to resolution of the presidential crisis.
Reporter has learned that the representatives themselves don't know.
The majority of them is waiting for a resolution which is expected to occur at the meeting of the main board of the party. The meeting was supposed to have taken place in January, as requested by the majority of the members of the main board, however, we learned, Plavsic obstructed this for very practical reasons: the president of the SNA is no longer certain of the outcome of the meeting. For or against Dodik. That is why the meeting of the main board was moved to after the session of the National Parliament. The position of the SNS representatives is further complicated by "the possible imposition of a president by the high representative" which would leave them with fait accompli. Reporter asked if this president might be Biljana Plavsic but could not get a straight answer from the SNS. However, there have been several attempts to defect from this party although those who attempted to defect did not "survive". Reporter's sources claim that proven beggars of another party's favors are Djuradj Banjac and Ostoja Kremenovic, deputy prime ministers in Dodik's government, who agreed to continue in the same function under Ilic. Together with this twosome, Jovo Basic, the minister of construction, tried to construct a new government but when the foundation turned out to be problematic the "construction workers" withdrew. All the others are trying to hold off stepping into the erasure zone as long as possible, even though it is an inevitability.
Serb Democratic Party: The Serb Democratic Party (SDS), which defined itself when Mirko Sarovic stepped forward, is already there. Now, members of this party say, any kind of barter with Dodik is out of question. Although the SDS can clap its hands with delight at Unity's collapse, at the same time, they are not unduly delighted because their future plans will be significantly affected by developments in the Socialist Party of RS. That is why their room for maneuver has been significantly narrowed down; they sacrificed a favorable position with the international community so that they could get rid of Dodik. The SDS is completely aware that there is no turning back; that would mean the end of the party. The current position of the party has caused great distress for the members of the international community, as well: one part, Reporter has learned, is seriously considering the possibility of banning the SDS altogether, regardless of the ramifications, which would certainly mean radicalization of the situation in RS; other circles in the international community are attempting a half-way solution: the dismissal of Mirko Sarovic. Their assessment is that the SDS will then pull back although the members of this party say this is not going to happen. The most discontented among the international factors are those who recently claimed that the SDS's entry into Dodik's government would mean the break-up of the party and the containment of its liberal wing. They are now demanding talks with the SDS regarding the newly created situation. The SDS's coalition partners, the Serb Radicals, are the only ones who are truly enjoying the newly created circumstances because they were excluded from all possible combinations quite some time ago. Their representatives are still doing upper body exercises because occasionally they have to raise their hands in the National Parliament.
CD Coalition: This coalition should be contented as well because the battle for its votes is as fierce as the one between Dodik and Ilic. Alija Izetbegovic explicitly ordered that the representatives of the SDA [ruling Bosniak-Muslim party, the Party for Democratic Action] never raise their hands together with the representatives of the SDS and the Radicals; a message that has no meaning for Silajdzic's Party for a Unified and Democratic Bosnia-Hercegovina. The hint that the three representatives of this party might be prepared to support an agreement of the SDS, the Serb Radical Party and the Socialist Party remained just that because there was no vote. However, Silajdzic's representatives in the RS Parliament can be absolutely contented because there is no better argument for the demands of their chief than the work of the RS Parliament. That is why many assess that Silajdzic's infamous "Memorandum for Change" was officially launched exactly on the date of the National Assembly session with full knowledge of the fact that RS had fallen into a trap. Because, Dodik's rule without a parliamentary majority, like the possible rule of Ilic or someone else with a parliamentary majority, but without the support of the international community, are equally bad solutions. Whoever wins on February 8, RS will be the loser. Even a draw is tantamount to a loss.