by Zvezdan GEORGIJEVSKI
The stores are all but empty and mostly closed. Schools are closed in Tetovo, Gostivar and Kumanovo. Border crossings with Kosovo are closed.
The results of two days of shooting in Tetovo are one dead and 19 wounded, of whom five are civilians. There is no information on casualties among the terrorists but there are indications that casualties and wounded are being transported by ambulance to private doctors' offices.
Illegitimate operations: According to information from the Macedonian interior ministry, there are approximately 500 armed and uniformed terrorists involved, of whom the majority are from Kosovo, primarily from Kacanik, Prizren, Vitina and Decani. The rest are from Macedonia, mostly from the area of Tetovo. The psychosis of fear and war rules Macedonia.
People are waiting in lines to get passports. Flour is the product most in demand in Skopje. The price of the German mark on the black market is skyrocketing but despite this there is a great shortage of hard currency. Some sources say that increased activity has been observed in financial transactions involving the accounts of Albanian individuals and organizations in Western Europe.
The Macedonian government still has not declared a state of emergency but this possibility has not been excluded. Macedonian premier Ljupco Georgijevski has stated that Macedonia will defend herself using all available means and methods up to and including direct NATO intervention if necessary.
All analyses indicate that the situation is really bad but that a serious escalation is not a strong probability. The chief argument for this claim is that the international community (read the U.S.A.) will not allow a wide-scale conflict, not for the sake of Macedonia, of course, but because of the southern wing of NATO. This is also confirmed by the decisive statement of the U.S. ambassador in Macedonia, Mike Einik, who assesses this situation as aggression against Macedonia, claiming that the U.S. "absolutely rejects every claim to legitimacy of terrorist operations".
Business circles: Finally, regardless of the fact that the local branch of the UCK (the National Liberation Army) has defined itself politically (that is, it is demanding the federalization of Macedonia, constitutional equality for the Albanians in Macedonia, a democracy based on consensus and wide autonomy), nevertheless, one gets the impression that more prosaic reasons hide behind these incidents.
Namely, incidents began immediately after Macedonia and Yugoslavia signed a border agreement, an agreement not recognized by the majority of the Macedonian Albanian political bloc (the parliamentary Party of Democratic Prosperity did not vote for its ratification), which leads to the conclusion that certain "business" circles which see stricter control of the border as being against their interests are hiding behind these incidents. This hypothesis can be defended in several ways. The impression is that even the local Albanian population is surprised by the course events have taken. Thus, the terrorists in principle do not have the support to bridge the critical threshold between incidents and war.
Despite this, new political forces are emerging. These forces wish to pick up political points on the waves of the newly created situation, thus literally playing with fire. In the midst of this kind of situation, a new political party of local Albanians was founded. The National Party of Albanians openly supports all demands of the UCK and so we now have the reintroduction of the concept of the so-called Illyria. We must explain to readers that there was an illegal referendum held in 1992 for the secession of western Macedonia (so-called Illyria). Namely, some Albanian political leaders have found this to be the opportune moment to make the claim that the referendum on Illyria was completely legal; that 97 percent of the local Albanian population turned out to vote; and that 94 percent voted in favor. Therefore, some Albanian political forces (the National Party of Albanians mentioned above) assess that this situation resulted due to continuous discrimination against Albanians in Macedonia, i.e., that this is a problem that dates back to the beginning of Macedonian sovereignty. On the other hand, the shooting in Tetovo began at exactly the same time a demonstration was held in this town under the slogan "Stop state terror against Albanians" at which one could hear everything but an appeal to calm the situation. On the contrary, it was suggested that the Albanians are fighting for justice and truth, and that they will not lay down their weapons until their demands are met.
Psychological war: The Macedonian government has not reacted so far to such provocations. Macedonian president Boris Trajkovski has categorically stated that there will be no negotiations or talks with the terrorists, while Prime Minister Ljupco Georgijevski claims that "some political structures of Albanians in the country have begun dangerous games with fire which makes the situation even more difficult". Macedonian police minister Dosta Dimovska is firm in her claim that the terrorists are the remnants of the former UCK (Kosovo Liberation Army) and that their goal is "to take over Macedonian territory and control Macedonian borders".
Defense minister Ljuben Paunovski says that this is a definite provocation to accept war in Macedonia and that if this occurs "we will know who is responsible", obviously alluding to the Albanian political bloc, especially to the ruling Democratic Party of Albanians led by Arben Xhaferi. Namely, during the time of the refugee crisis when Macedonia accepted about 400,000 refugees, this party boasted that it was in complete control of the situation (and, in all honesty, it was) while now it is unable to control some one hundred terrorists.
The refugee crisis is a topic that comes up in some of the local political debates. So this is how the Albanians thank Macedonia! Which is to say that the psychological war is already in full swing. Macedonian radio, for example, recently refused to rebroadcast the BBC news in English and Macedonian with the explanation that it needed the broadcasting time for other programming while essentially reflecting the dissatisfaction of the Macedonian political leadership with the manner the British media source is reporting on local developments.
As we write this text (on Friday morning), an extraordinary session of parliament is being prepared. This session is expected to clear up many positions. Truth to tell, it is possible that the parliamentary session itself, instead of calming the situation, will further fan the flames of easily ignited passions.