Authorities Reflecting the People

by Dr. Slavo KUKIC

Oslobodjenje, Sarajevo, Federation Bosnia-Hercegovina, B-H, November 14, 2000

Bosnia-Hercegovina (BH) has "survived" yet another election. The expectations differed. Naturally, the degree of satisfaction with achieved results also differs. According to the data published by the leading political parties, as well as the first results announced by the OSCE, the trend of strengthening of civic parties, the SDP above all, continues. However, the influence of the three nationalist groups is undeniable. The indicators at our disposal are not sufficient for a reliable analysis. However, on the basis of available indicators it is obvious that the final election results are significantly different from all the public opinion polls conducted in the last few months. These polls seemed to indicate that the influence of the group HDZ-SDA would definitely be broken in the Federation BH (FBH). The polls also suggested that the influence of the SDS would continue to decrease. However, judging by the early results, neither has happened. On the contrary! It could happen that two national[ist] parties keep the majority in the lower house of the FBH Parliament, with assistance of several smaller parties that support them. Besides, it would not be surprising if the SDS wins the absolute majority in the Republic of Srpska (RS) Parliament. What are the reasons for this discrepancy? What influenced a radical change in the mood of the electorate? Most likely, it is too early to make any definite conclusions. However, it cannot be denied that some causes can be identified at this time. For example, several times during the last week or two, one could hear the assessment that this has been the dirtiest election campaign since the end of the war. It is easy to agree with that assessment. The story about a state established on this side of the Drina River is not any more only a SDS specialty. On the contrary. Others have also mounted that horse. Newly composed riders of the apocalypse from "Srpska". The same assessment must be reserved for the racist messages reserved for Bosniak brothers. Those in which the SDP is identified as a Greater Serbian/Yugonostalgic conspiracy into which, because of their insufficient enlightenment or treason, Bosniaks have been pulled in. If permitted, the SDP will destroy the Bosniaks. As it has allegedly already done several times in the past. In the end, what can be said for the whole HDZ's pre-election referendum scenario? From the marketing point of view, that was a perfect move, responsible for the strongest homogenization of BH Croats around the HDZ since the first multi-party elections. This move is the secret of the election results that, apparently, surpass anything expected even by the biggest optimists in this party. Nevertheless, this campaign is also the cause of the unexpected repeated homogenization of Bosniaks around the SDA. Is the international machinery innocent in all of that? The arrest of Momcilo Krajisnik on the eve of the local elections in April could have been an accident. It brought Karadzic's broken machine [SDS] back to life. Judging by the results the SDS is back and fully recovered. In the preparation of the November general elections the international machinery made, to say the least, insensible changes of the election rules, trying to supposedly adapt them to the decision of the BH Constitutional Court about the constituent character of all three nations in both entities. This was done in the manner inconsistent with legal and any other kind of logic. This decision opened space for the HDZ pre-election scenario, that the party would not have been able to come up with on its own. It was given plausible grounds to argue that there are serious intentions to degrade the status of Croats from that of a constituent nation to that of an ethnic minority. By that the international machinery gave the HDZ grounds to manipulate its own people and again homogenize them around itself. This homogenization keeps the same HDZ political oligarchy in life. Can we again trust the story about an unfortunate coincidence? Isn't something else at work? Isn't it time to finally openly state that? Or, are we supposed to persevere with the hindsight approach? The one stating that now, because of the violations of election rules, the HDZ would have to be banned and excluded from power. There is no doubt that, out of all the mistakes made by the international administrations during the last few months, the lack of the respect for the will of the electorate would be the worst one. Sanctions for violations of election rules are there to be applied. However, there is an appropriate time to apply those sanctions, and that time, based on common sense, is before the elections. In this case, the right time would have been before November 11. After that "drastic cuts" can only be understood as a drastic violation of the will of the electorate and, in this case, an attack on a nation. Personally, therefore, I do not wish for that outcome. On the contrary. I am inclined to think that it would definitively guarantee a return to the past, to the early 1990's, political and biological adventurism. Although, to tell the truth, the road to that is still mostly open. As far s I am concerned, I would not be surprised by such a denouement. And why should I be surprised? Besides, the people decided and got what it wanted, the authorities it deserves, and the future that is far from promising and which, in spite of everything, it does not deserve.

Underlined

"It's Time for Changes"

by Jozo PAVKOVIC

Oslobodjenje, Sarajevo, Federation Bosnia-Hercegovina, B-H, November 14, 2000

Representatives of the international community were very disappointed after the announcement of the first election results in Bosnia-Hercegovina. Millions of German Marks invested in the SDP and other opposition parties, and the overthrow of national[ist] parties did not produce adequate results. Furthermore, the HDZ, SDA, and SDS, the parties that were the target of this campaign, ended up being stronger. The scenario from the Republic of Croatia, was not repeated in BH, as the representatives of the international community hoped, above all because, unlike in Croatia, ethnic problems haven't been resolved in BH. The international community is persistently trying to "sweep those problems under the carpet". They are imposing a concept of BH in which many Croats, Serbs and Bosniaks see danger for their communities. These elections, as a democratic expression of the popular will, indicate that they want a different BH. The election rules, tailored to suit the SDP, only provoked bitterness and fear among the Croats, who were worried about the loss of their constituent character. Overnight, Croats homogenized and recognized security gathering around one party (HDZ). Most others joined them in the organization of a referendum in which they clearly indicated that they would not give in anymore. Bosniaks reacted similarly. Izetbegovic's SDA has stopped the drop in its rating. SDA's even more radical satellite, Silajdzic's Party for BH (SBH) has significantly improved its results. It seems that exactly the SBH took those votes that the SDP was counting on. Serbs are again gathering around the SDS. Millions of German Marks invested in Milorad Dodik were wasted. After all, the international community has one remaining option, to usher the SDP and its allies to power by using electoral engineering and radically distorting the will of the electorate. Perhaps, they will also dismiss a few "radical" leaders. However, instead of such a style of work, which obviously proved to be counterproductive, it is time to reexamine whether the international community has the right cure for this patient, and whether the time is right for some new experiment with some new diplomats. Perhaps they should carefully think about their pre-election message for Bosnian voters: "It is time for changes".

Translated on November 15, 2000