by Dragan BUJOSEVIC
The calm with which Djindjic and Kostunica talk about 13 hours of voting that has changed relations in Montenegro and created new hopes and despair because of a possible survival of already written off third Yugoslavia, appears natural.
In his usual voice Kostinuca explains his customary calm by the fact that the results of the elections in Montenegro are a surprise for the ruling structures in Montenegro, political and media public in the West, most Belgrade media and public pollsters, but that they were not a surprise for him. The president of Yugoslavia rejects any hint that now an avalanche of malicious gloating could start form Belgrade towards Podgorica after an obvious and typically Milosevic-style political misstep by of Milo Djukanovic and his collaborators.
Djindjic's assessment of results differed from that of Kostunica. Rationally, he believed that the results would reflect those predicted by CAMI, CESID, and Strategic marketing late on Sunday evening: Milo Djukanovic 42%, Predrag Bulatovic - 40.9%, Miodrag Zivkovic - 7.8%. However, he was convinced that "the party that has been in power in Montenegro for years had some sort of a plan and was sure of its victory, as otherwise they would not have called the elections". Djindjic admits that "tired of Montenegrin refusal to talk", he stopped inquiring about the events "down there" and was consequently "pleasantly surprised" when he realized that the elections results were "open".
The Serbian Prime Minster believes that it is completely natural that the inhabitants of the larger state [Serbia] be hurt by the rhetoric used by the ruling politicians in Montenegro during the election campaign, that it is natural that that rhetoric provokes some sort of revanchism in them, but that there is "less of that than can be expected". "This is the first time in the history of the Balkans that a separation of a state is discussed in such a relaxed manner. I would like to thank the citizens of Serbia for their lack of reaction to insults coming from Montenegro," Djindjic said for NIN.
It is not irrelevant that both Djindjic and Kostunica agree that the election results in Montenegro are a consequence of the media monopoly and media manipulation of the ruling DPS and the coalition "Montenegro's Victory", which during the night between Sunday and Monday, according to Belgrade election observers, treated all and sundry to free roasted lamb meat in the Podgorica hotel "Montenegro". "The media campaign of the ruling coalition in Montenegro," added Kostunica, "resembled Slobodan Milosevic's campaigns".
These two politicians differ in their prediction of future moves by Milo Djukanovic.
Vojislav Kostunica for NIN: "We shall see whether Djukanovic will insist on a referendum. Based on his recent statements, it seems he will. We need clear relations and an end of interminable debates about already resolved problems. Those debates will destroy this state, they will destroy Serbia. It is obvious that Montenegro is split down the middle. If someone believes that it is necessary to yet again test the will of the citizens, let it be. These elections were not absolutely the same as a referendum. I think that in a possible independence referendum, the political parties advocating independence for Montenegro would fare worse than in this election."
But that is not the end of Kostunica's thoughts about the referendum. He thinks that the example of attempts of Quebec to secede from Canada is instructive. "There have been two independence referendums in Quebec," says Kostunica. "That idea failed both times. The organizers of the referendum withdrew, accepted responsibility for the failure, but also learned a lesson. Now Parti Quebecois is in power in Quebec, but they do not intend to organize an independence referendum. They accepted reality that a majority is against secession. If we want to join Europe and the world, then we must respect European and world standards. One cannot forever drain this country by endless discussions about its survival. It is nonsense to claim that Montenegro is enslaved in Yugoslavia, that it is merely a part of Serbia, because according to the current constitution Serbia is nothing but a part of Montenegro. It is true that there is a tyranny of majority, but there is also a tyranny of minority."
Djindjic's predictions regarding a possible independence referendum in Montenegro are different. "Djukanovic is an experienced politician. He will realize that his assessments were mistaken, influenced by bad advice and bad advisors. With the media support he had, the advantage of 3,000-4,000 votes is insignificant. Even if the votes for the Liberal Alliance are added he still does not have the support of more than a half of registered voters in Montenegro."
"Elections demonstrated that Montenegro is politically split," Kostunica said for NIN "and consequently a solution must be found within Montenegro. As far as I know, talks in all directions have already started there. Everyone is talking to everyone." The president of Yugoslavia does not exclude any possibility of new political coalitions in Montenegro. He says that even a "technical coalition of the Liberal Alliance and 'Together for Yugoslavia' whose goal would be to organize new fair and democratic elections in Montenegro would make sense".
Djindjic is convinced that Belgrade "should make efforts to connect divided Montenegrin politicians to assist them to overcome their mutual divisions. I am referring to bringing Milo Djukanovic and Predrag Bulatovic together. They have a serious problem. Their country is stuck and they are stuck with the most important issue. Until they resolve that issue they cannot move forward. The one of the two of them who rejects compromise will end up a loser."
Talks between Belgrade and Podgorica can only follow after a deal is made in Montenegro. Kostunica reminds that he always, "and especially last summer and during the meeting in Sveti Stefan," advocated talks in which representatives of all relevant political options in Serbia and Montenegro would participate, but that "Montenegro one refused to talk to Montenegro two," and that the official Podgorica only agreed to separate talks.
Djindjic warns that there is no time to spare. "The Federal state is totally dysfunctional and expensive," he said for NIN. "The citizens of Serbia are dissatisfied by its status in Yugoslavia. By the autumn we should have federal elections and by the end of the year we should resolve the issue of survival and organization of the joint state."
"We must modify our offer to Montenegro," Djindjic says for NIN, "so that it is acceptable for both sides and neither side feels like a loser. We accept the idea from Podgorica that the federal government keep only those ministries that the states do not have, so that there is no ministry for health, agriculture etc. Let the federal government keep two or three functions, but these functions must be the product of a sincere agreement, instead of incessant disputes. The federal government should deal with foreign policy, military, monetary policy and protection of human rights. Everything else should be done by the states, let them be as independent as possible. That is also in the interest of Serbia. It is fine to have a unicameral parliament with half the representatives from Montenegro and the other half from Serbia. And we should keep in mind that the public will accept any solution supported by a majority. The public above all wants that the status of the state they live in be resolved, so that they stop worrying about in which state they will live a year or two from now."
Kostunica says: "Let the federal state keep only the essential functions, but it must be given tools to be able to efficiently carry out those functions. People from Serbia and Montenegro could rotate according to an agreed mechanism on the top positions in the state. The federal parliament can be unicameral. It already is sort of an unicameral parliament because according to the current constitution no decision can be made without an agreement of both chambers [the upper chamber has equal number of representatives from Montenegro and Serbia]."
The ball is in Podgorica's court.
Belgrade is playing cool.