Accepting the risk that, because of incomplete official results, one could sometimes be mistaken, the results of the most recent elections lead to several conclusions. Above all, there are two major reasons for the convincing victory for the Socialists in the federal elections. The first factor is the unprecedented unconstitutional and unlawful use of all the electronic media and high circulation newspapers by the ruling party and the exclusion of the opposition and opinions which differ from those offered, more correctly imposed, by the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) from the same media. Undoubtedly, this factor had the crucial influence on the voting preferences of a large number of citizens, who, because of a lack of education, received the only information about the global political and economic issues through the media strictly controlled by SPS and the United Yugoslav Left (JUL). This situation denied democratic goal and character of the elections which became illegitimate and illegal.
Regarding the local elections in municipalities and cities, none of the above mentioned factors could have had significant influence. Unlike in the federal elections, which an average citizens experiences as "complicated state politics", local policies and their results in the cities and municipalities (deteriorating public transport, lack of heating, cleanliness, arrogant and corrupt local authorities etc.) are daily visible and obvious to any citizen; this image cannot be corrected by party propaganda on the Television screens. Above all, this applied to large cities where public service firms exhibited the worst performance, and are much more important in the daily life of citizens.
Also, in large industrial centers the imposition of international sanctions (the whole previous mandate, 1992-96) led to the total breakdown of many large companies which provided livelihood for a majority of citizens ("Zastava" in Kragujevac, Electronic Industry and Machine Industry in Nis, Rakovica, IMT and others in Belgrade). The position of people in those large industrial centers has become so desperate that they, naturally, voted for the change in government. True, in the last federal elections the opposition won more mandates than SPS in Belgrade, Novi Sad, Nis and other large cities, but in the local elections the victory was much more convincing.
Both federal and local elections demonstrated that the nationalism is still strong in Serbia, as indicated the unexpected success of Radicals and the expected debacle of the so called JUL in the local elections. That proved that JUL is a marginal party whose members join the party because of personal need or self interest and which has entered the federal parliament only because of the marital coalition with SPS [Ms Mira Markovic, the founder of JUL, is married to Slobodan Milosevic, the president of SPS]. The same goes for New Democracy.
Facing an unexpected and convincing defeat in the second round of the local elections in largest cities, the ruling party has obviously engaged in obstruction of the second election round through fabrication and submission of a large number of complaints because of alleged irregularities in the running of the elections. Based on the available information, it is obvious that the goal of this obstruction was to unlawfully forge the election results. The fact that on this occasion there were more objections than at all earlier elections taken together, and that the objections come from the party which ran the elections process, SPS, is enough to make one wonder. This paradox becomes even more jarring taking into account that the state-controlled television, during the whole day on November 17 when the second round of municipal elections took place, broadcasted numerous "live" statements from election committee members in which they stated that the voting was progressing in the best possible conditions and that there were no irregularities in the election process. The election records taken by the election committees, (who effectively run the voting process, distribute ballots to the voters, count votes and enter results in election records) were almost everywhere completed on time and signed by the members from all political parties without objections. These records are the strongest evidence for foul play by the Socialists.
The key question is: how come that suddenly, during the sessions of district electoral commissions, there was an avalanche of objections because of alleged irregularities most commonly because of the surplus of ballots in ballot boxes. The objections were, as the press informs us, lodged by the Socialists only after it became clear that SPS had lost the elections. The surplus of ballots was not recorded by original election commissions which actually counted the ballots, but after the delivery of ballot boxes and election commission reports to the district electoral commission. After the delivery, election commissions and their members who represent the opposition have no more control over the election material. Therefore, the surplus ballots could have only been added by the Socialist representatives , since they controlled the printing of ballots and had the opportunity to stuff the ballot boxes once they were delivered by the election committees.
In connection with the elections, one should keep in mind that the election record becomes valid once all the electoral committee members sign identical copies of the original record. Unlike electoral committees which have to reach decisions through consensus, district electoral commissions reach decisions through majority vote; a majority of district electoral commissions members are chosen by the regime, while the minority is nominated by larger political parties. The legality of the process depends on the conscience of the judges and their ability or willingness to resist the pressure of the regime.
Today the radio said that the courts have annulled the results in some precincts in Belgrade which had been verified by the city electoral commission, allegedly because the agenda showed that the commission hadn't considered all objections. At the same time we could hear that the opposition representatives in the city electoral commission have original agenda notes which differ from those held by the court and which show that the commission had considered all objections. If that is true, it can only mean that the courts were given forged notes from the session of the city electoral commission or that that commission didn't know anything about its legal obligations. One should expect that the appeals to the Supreme Court of Serbia will stop the wave of electoral fraud.
Based on the dramatic events in connection with the alleged irregularities during the municipal elections, one could conclude that SPS, using even illegal means, is trying to at any cost annul elections in as many localities as possible and to try to reverse the results in the third round, again using all available means, starting with the total control over the media and ending with various pre-election and post-election tricks. In the meantime, the Serbian parliament will probably vote on and enact laws which will reduce the jurisdiction of local authorities (funding, media, revenue etc.).
Objectively, the results of municipal elections will be in greatest danger after the elections. The third round of elections, will probably produce the same results as the second round. Everything else is a robbery. The third election round demands additional training and readiness of the election committee members who represent opposition as well as the presence of international observers.
All that would be highly risky for the regime and would certainly cause civic disturbances in Serbia which would easily slip out of control and turn into bloody clashes between the citizens and police (and maybe military), into a civil war. In that case, the full responsibility for that chain of events would fall on the ruling regime and its head [Slobodan Milosevic]. The citizens have the right to respond to blatant unlawfulness and suppression of basic constitutional freedoms and rights with incessant peaceful protests, including peaceful blockade of vital institutions, and also demand foreign arbitration. Let us hope that this will be avoided and that the ruling regime will find enough common sense and realise that the further worsening of the situation would be disastrous for everyone and especially for him, since he [Slobodan Milosevic, president of Serbia] would be forced from power.
I believe that the decisions by courts, whatever they may be, and the third round of voting will open a way out of this crisis and herald a new phase in the democratic development of Serbia and its integration with Europe and the rest of the developed world. I am encouraged in this belief by the fact that the largest cities and towns in Serbia have voted for this option, and they are the brain and backbone of the country. The destiny of Serbia has always been determined by the political events and political climate in its largest intellectual, industrial, scientific and cultural centers. Such development of history can not be stopped by the police and the Serbian Television; they can only slow it down.