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Coalition Strategy

No Anesthesia

by Drasko DJURANOVIC

Monitor, Podgorica, Montenegro, FR Yugoslavia, December 29, 2000

Technically, everything was prepared. A session of the Montenegrin government was scheduled for the evening hours on Monday, December 25, state-controlled media were present, cameras turned on, tape recorders at ready... The news was supposed to be - the Montenegrin government adopted today, in its special session, the Platform about the relations between Montenegro and Serbia that will be used as the basis for negotiations with the new Serbian government.

However, there was no place for optimism. The following day the public was informed that the Platform, "because of disagreement of three partners in the ruling coalition" had not been adopted and that the leaders of the DPS, NS, and the SDP would continue negotiations about a common concept "immediately, the following day".

The described event is the true picture of relations in the tripartite Montenegrin coalition. It hasn't been functioning, but it is neither falling apart. "We are looking forward to the elections, or a referendum, so that Djukanovic can become a part of the past, just like Milosevic," said in early December Predrag Popovic, the vice-president of People's Party (NS). And... nothing happened. The coalition survived without troubles although the political activities of the NS, DPS and Socialdemocrats clearly indicate strategic disagreements about the future of Montenegro. If is difficult to recall a similar example in political practice. It is easier to find similarities in the policies advocated by the ruling People's Party and the opposition Socialist People's Party (SNP), than the "coalition partners" the SDP and NS. That is why the total blockade within the government is a logic outcome of such a situation. The "strategy" of waiting and postponing the decision is the common thread that currently connects the DPS, SDP and NS.

However, waiting is not the problem. It is difficult to figure out what they are waiting for. As far as is known, there are at least three versions of the Montenegrin "platform". One adopted in 1999, with qualified support by Socialdemocrats, envisages some sort of a confederal contract between Serbia and Montenegro. Discussions about the modifications of that platform started immediately after Milosevic's fall. An alliance of two internationally recognized states, with separate seats in the UN, is the new contribution by the DPS. Reactions of their coalition partners indicated that this is a significant change. While the Socialdemocrats hailed "the DPS support for independent Montenegro" (Z. Rakcevic), the People's Party threatened to leave the coalition if such a proposal became the official Montenegrin offer.

Another reversal followed, as in a low budget thriller. Late last week, Montenegrin Prime Minister Vujanovic offered a third version that is, in fact, a "remix" of the platform from 1999 with the addition of the international recognition for both Serbia and Montenegro. There is no expert that can explain: at the same time Yugoslavia and independent Serbia and Montenegro, including the common diplomacy, army and the president of the Alliance!? The People's Party, however, recognized that that means the preservation of the common state, and the SDP giving up the independence of Montenegro. Therefore, now the Socialdemocrats are a "troublemaker" in the coalition!

To make everything even more complicated, two days after the unsuccessful government session, president Djukanovic was unequivocal: "I absolutely advocate Montenegro as an independent state included in the UN and international institutions, although that does not exclude an alliance with Serbia. If the result of a referendum is contrary to my proposals, I should not lead either the state or the party [DPS]."

A remark for the forgetful: Djukanovic, who is now tying his political fate to the project of the internationally recognized [independent] state of Montenegro (and does not exclude an alliance with Serbia) and Filip Vujanovic who officially proposes a union of Serbia and Montenegro (internationally recognized) are in the same party, the Democratic Party of Socialists.

And exactly there lies the solution of the Montenegrin "Gordian knot". The DPS has based its rule so far on the policy of equal distance, building during the last decade the specific position of a centrist party. However, the times have changed, now there is no middle ground. The definition of the statehood does not require half measures. Perhaps in that case some careers in the leadership of the Democratic Party of Socialists will not have a brilliant future, but as far as the Montenegrin state is concerned, the strategy of waiting implies the loss of the last chance [to achieve independence].

And it is easy to resolve the confusion. New elections or a referendum. Everything else is pure lobotomy, without anesthesia.


Translated on January 7, 2001
VREME