The leadership of the Democratic Party of Socialists, however, is not only concerned by the outcome of the September federal elections. Many details indicate that, besides the struggle against Milosevic and his followers in Montenegro, Djukanovic and comrades have to sort out increasingly pronounced tensions within the party.
Outlines of the clash became public the last spring in Budva, with the scandal in connection with the sale of hotel "Mogren". The Budva lobby took a heavy blow when the Montenegrin government contested the intention to sell that hotel to a (nonexistent) Swiss company, although the political and economic leadership of Budva stood behind that deal. A few months ago, "the Budva empire" struck back. The affair "Accor" is seriously shaking the DPS. One the one side stands Svetozar Marovic, supported on the municipal level by the People's Party (NS) and the Socialist People's Party (SNP). All of them oppose the controversial deal about management with the French company "Accor", signed by the Montenegrin government. Of course, it is not surprising that the representatives of the SNP voted against a decision made by the Vujanovic's government, but it is that Marovic opposes Prime Minister Vujanovic, and that the local councilors of the DPS and the NS oppose their own government.
In a "friendly conversation" Marovic and Vujanovic tried to reach a compromise. However, that obviously did not happen. On the contrary, the media campaigns of both sides have continued.
At the same time, fuel to the fire is added by the People's Party. In late August, the Chief Board of this party pulled out their representatives from the Program Council of the state TV, until "the editorial team is replaced or resigns". In early September, the People's Party took another step threatening to leave the ruling coalition. "The People's Party will not any more publicly warn its coalition partners to stick to the signed coalition agreement. Our next step will be to leave the ruling coalition," said Predrag Popovic.
It is interesting that only a few months earlier the leaders of the People's Party were much more tolerant. When in March they failed to replace the editorial team of TV Montenegro, Predrag Popovic easily dismissed the whole episode emphasizing that it was normal that different opinions were represented in the coalition and that "no goal was worth bringing into question the survival of the coalition".
What has changed in the meantime? The People's Party appears increasingly nervous, returning to the aggressive rhetoric from the early nineties, including condemnations of "separatists", "docleans" and many other independent Montenegrin organizations created during ten years of the anti-war campaign for the preservation of the Montenegrin identity.
The leadership of the DPS was until recently united in its rejection of the demands of the People's Party. Does the change indicate that the People's Party has been promised the support from a part of the Democratic Party of Socialists in the showdown with the editorial team of the state television? Does that indicate that disagreements, following the domino principle have spread from the DPS to the whole coalition?
Unlike the NS, the other member of the coalition, the Socialdemocratic party (SDP) so far does not want to raise tensions within the coalition, although in Budva it clashed with Marovic. However, the differences between the SDP and the two other coalition partners regarding the state-legal status of Montenegro [euphemism for independence] are well known from before [SDP supports independence, the DPS is ambivalent, the NS opposes it]
The Montenegrin triple alliance, in spite of numerous misunderstandings is still held together by "higher force" - the danger from Slobodan Milosevic and his intention to control Montenegro. Besides, the parties with disparate political programs were united in 1997 exactly by the Belgrade dictator. Later the internal cohesion was maintained by the interests - the right to a part of the spoils of power, and money.
Now, it seems, they are more and more divided by two things: struggle about the redistribution of power and wealth, as well as an indication of a possible end of Milosevic's era in Serbia. It is an old rule - whenever at least a chance of changes can be felt in Serbia, the political soil in Montenegro shakes.
That's how it was in 1996-1997 when during the big demonstrations in Belgrade and other Serbian cities, the DPS snapped. Now, as well, it seems that a part of Djukanovic's coalition has fallen for the public opinion polls according to which Milosevic's is "loosing for sure". The Serbian opposition is already spreading optimism declaring itself for a winner in advance of the elections. Besides, from above they are sending messages and political threats to Djukanovic - when they come to power, they may turn their backs on him.
Are we seeing an outline of a new coalition - Yugoslavia?
It is not a secret that the People's Party supports political views of Vojislav Kostunica. Of course, it is not a secret that a part of the Democratic Party of Socialists, led by Svetozar Marovic, has strong pro-Yugoslav feelings. Kostunica's victory would significantly reduce the likelihood of a military intervention in Montenegro which was one of the reasons that brought together parties with different programs in a single coalition.
Kostunica counts not only on Yugoslavs and Serbs within Djukanovic coalition. The story about amnesty and opposition to the Hague indictments is a conscious ploy aimed at winning over allies from the pro-Milosevic Montenegrin clan.
Monitor's sources from Belgrade claim that Zoran Djindjic and Vojislav Kostunica have already sent a signal to the Podgorica wing of the SNP. Even a possibility of a meeting between Vojislav Kostunica and Predrag Bulatovic has been floated. That meeting, according to the idea of the Serbian opposition, should consider possible post-electoral cooperation.
If the Serbian opposition intends to enter an alliance with the SNP, as has been announced by Mladjan Dinkic a long time ago, then it cannot do that with Momir Bulatovic. The Federal Prime Minister, after all, cannot get out of Milosevic's shadow. He has definitely tied his fate to that of the Serb leader as he confirmed in a recent interview to the Sarajevo weekly Dani.
But, from the point of view of the Serbian opposition, every "defector" would be precious. It seems that a part of the SNP, facing the uncertain outcome of the Serbian election drama, is getting ready for the time after Milosevic. "We are a democratic party and have nothing against talks with the Serbian opposition," stated Zoran Zizic in the villa Gorica after negotiations with the representatives of the DPS. Vague, just as it should be if one needs a way out.
Obviously, a lot is going on behind the political stage. Only at first glance it seems surprising that before the September 24 federal elections the ruling team is torn by disagreements. But it is politically significant: while the danger from Milosevic united diverse parties of the ruling Montenegrin coalition, the possibility of a victory of the united Serbian opposition led by Kostunica has opened wide cracks in the leadership of the DPS and the coalition authorities.
That the Montenegrin authorities have taken seriously sparks within the coalition is confirmed by the moves that will follow in the coming days. Prime Minister Vujanovic, a vice-president of the DPS, is the man who should run consultations with the People's Party and sort out disagreements in the near future. "We have to talk urgently, but I think that everything will be in order," said a high official of the DPS. It is not known who will pay the "price of reconciliation".
The strongest Montneegrin party will have a harder time in bringing its ranks in order. Montenegrin president Djukanovic still hasn't taken a stand on the affair "Accor". He will, according to the information available to Monitor take on himself the difficult task of calming tensions between the two conflicted sides. True, perhaps the task of the leader of the DPS will after all not be that difficult, although the economic-political clash has taken root. Milosevic is still in game, as the strongest cohesive factor of unity within the coalition and the DPS.
However, if the ruling coalition is kept together only by the outside danger, rather than a strategy for reforms and democratizaton of the society, the real looser, once all accounts are settled, could be Montenegro.
Therefore, advisor of the Montenegrin president Miodrag Vukovic already predicted that only 20 percent of voters in Montenegro would cast their votes in the federal elections. The propaganda of the other side was also turned on. On Sunday, September 3, Momir Bulatovic, on behalf of the SNP submitted 181,629 signatures of Montenegrin citizens in support of Slobodan Milosevic's candidacy for the federal president. Unprecedented in the political practice, the SNP collected in support of Milosevic as many as 50,000 signatures more than it had received in the 1998 elections!? The list of signatures is not available to the public, so that we can only take Bulatovic's words at face value.
Therefore, the war of numbers started a month before the elections. With a good reason: the fate of both camps will depend on the turnout in the federal elections. The turnout will also determine the near future of Montenegro, since it will be like a sort of a mini referendum. Providing that the votes are counted, and the Montenegrin authorities will control the elections. Therefore, we shall know the answer to a key question: how many people in Montenegro truly support the survival of FRY, clumsily put together in 1992 and constitutionally "reformed" in 2000?
According to the data from the end of August, supporters of Milosevic's FRY have reasons for worry. Comparative polls indicate that "the likelihood of voting in the elections" exists among only thirty percent of the citizens of Montenegro. Comparing that with the last parliamentary elections, that means that at most 125-130 thousands of voters may show up at voting booths.
But the electoral practice so far indicates that "the inclination to vote" and the actual turnout are not one and the same thing. The number of those who give up at the last moment because of obligations or actual lack of interest is not insignificant.
Besides, polls were conducted before the official start of the media campaign against voting in the federal elections. The experience so far indicates that the agitation of the authorities, assisted by the state-controlled media, has influence on those citizens used to "directives from the top", which additionally reduces the number of those who will really vote on September 24.
In addition to that, it should not be forgotten that the "Serb block" in Montenegro this time won't be united. In the last elections, the Radicals, SNS and numerous neo-communist parties won the trust of about 10,000 voters. Now Milosevic is facing serious competition in Montenegro from Kostunica. More accurately: is it difficult that Milosevic and the SNP can count on more than 85 to 90 thousands votes of support in Montenegro.
What about the "counted" 181,629 signatures of support to Milosevic? It is a well-known game - the secrecy of count is guaranteed by the federal administration.