Instead of taking care of their own backyard in Serbia, the opposition started criticizing the authorities in Podgorica. Thus, Vesna Pesic cynically wrote in the daily Danas that "the Montenegrin authorities are behaving like an insulted bride". She sent an ultimatum to the Montenegrin leadership - either contest the elections or leave FR Yugoslavia. Kostunica and Djindjic took one step further. In their statements they are already blaming Djukanovic for a possible victory of Slobodan Milosevic and his Socialists.
Since friendly persuasion did not convince the DPS to after all accept to contest the elections, the Belgrade opposition circles came up with a "solution". They began to put together "Montenegrin" lists of supposedly independent candidates who were supposed to try their luck in a battle with the SNP for seats in both chambers of the Federal Parliament. Some well known names were mentioned - from Matija Beckovic to Miodrag Lekic. The chief task, the recruiting of Montenegrins in Montenegro and in Belgrade was taken up by Mladjan Dinkic, the coordinator of Group 17 and the economic advisor of presidential candidate Vojislav Kostunica. He claims that the campaign started well, since in Montenegro one can always find patriots prepared to sacrifice themselves. But it ended badly.
"We tried to do everything to find personalities who were not discredited, corrupt, or involved in politics in Montenegro, in order to form lists for the federal elections. We managed to find very respectable people, who would definitively be successful candidates. However, the Montenegrin authorities exerted pressure on them, and some of them gave up," says Mladjan Dinkic for Monitor
But, in spite of disagreements in connection with the elections, we will have talks with the ruling coalition in Montenegro, especially about the control of those elections. We will do everything in our power to control the elections in Montenegro, and we hope that the local authorities will not try to prevent us from that.
"Mr. Mladjan Dinkic offered me to be the leading candidate on the list for federal elections in Montenegro. I took that as a friendly joke. However, when he confirmed that that was a serious offer, I immediately rejected the offer. I was shocked by the lack of basic information about my personal political and professional views that I have publicly stated during the last ten years regarding the legal and Montenegrin statehood issues, and because of which I have frequently had problems. I have heard comments that some respected individuals were under pressure to reject participation on this list. I have not had contacts with Montenegrin authorities for a while, so that in my case there was no pressure," says Nebojsa Medojevic, also a member of G17 and only one of many who rejected the offer from Belgrade.
"It was absolutely unrealistic to expect that the Montenegrin authorities would support independent lists from Belgrade. Thereby they would indirectly participate in the elections that they have decided to boycott," says sociologist Dr. Milan Popovic. Srdjan Darmanovic, a political analyst, warned that the support for lists created in Belgrade would ruin the boycott.
The Montenegrin authorities can defeat Milosevic in the September 24 election only if more than 50 percent of voters boycott the elections.
A large turnout, regardless of the winner, would bring Djukanovic's coalition in unenviable position. After that the SNP would proclaim a victory.
This simple logic apparently was not clear to some members of the DPS and the Popular Party (NS). Used to half-hearted solutions, they urged the Serbian opposition to electoral action in Montenegro by their statements, not only in meetings in Sveti Stefan and Podgorica. Immediately after the regime in Belgrade called the elections, Montenegrin authorities promised logistical support to their allies from Belgrade thereby creating additional confusion in the public.
Last week, Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic stated for Radio Free Europe that "all opponents of Slobodan Milosevic are welcome in Montenegro". He supported lists of independent candidates in Montenegro backed by the Serbian opposition, emphasizing that that was "a chance to win votes from the neutral electorate and those voters who support Milosevic".
Only a few days after the very specific Vujanovic's statement, president Djukanovic tried in an interview to Vijesti to pull the hot chestnut out of fire. He called the story about support for lists backed by the Belgrade opposition "a pure speculation". For those elected in the federal elections he said the following: "They can represent themselves, or anyone else, but not Montenegro." Djukanovic called for a boycott and stated: "All those who care about the state dignity and future of Montenegro, who care about their own good and their families, and that is an overwhelming majority in Montenegro, will ignore the coming electoral farce on September 24."
"It is obvious that opinions regarding the support for those lists were divided within the DPS itself. Perhaps I am speculating, but I would not be surprised if that idea was supported by the so-called Marovic's faction. According to his statements, actions, now and in the past, the policy of Svetozar Marovic is dangerously close to the policy FR Yugoslavia at all costs, which is supported by the SNP. That is increasingly becoming an internal Montenegrin problem," says Dr. Milan Popovic.
After Djukanovic's statement the campaign for the boycott of the elections finally began. Miodrag Vukovic, the president of the executive council of the DPS announced the results of the most recent opinion poll, which allegedly indicate that 80 percent of Montenegrin citizens will boycott the elections. Deputy Prime Minister Dragisa Burzan stated that polling booths in public buildings will not be open. Local authorities were declared incapable of organizing elections, by which the Montenegrin authorities are trying to prevent municipalities ruled by the pro-Milosevic SNP from organizing the elections. Finally, the Serbian opposition gave up formation of Montenegrin lists.
"We gave up the idea to have to independent lists of candidates in Montenegro after the statement by Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic that all those who participate in the elections will be treated as enemies of Montenegro. We do not want be treated as enemies of Montenegro," Dinkic is resigned.
After Djukanovic's interview to Vijesti the criticism of the Montenegrin authorities by the opposition from Belgrade grew stronger. Obviously the Belgrade opposition views Montenegro merely as a voting resource, rather than an equal partner that can make autonomous decisions. In conversation with Monitor Mladjan Dinkic assesses that the Montenegrin president is building the whole strategy on wrong premises: "Djukanovic predicts that Milosevic will win in the elections. The boycott by Montenegro only increases the chance of Milosevic's victory. It is clear, if Milosevic wins in the elections, Montenegro will continue to be in a favored position and receive assistance from the international community. That is the goal of the Montenegrin president," says Dinkic.
Dinkic concedes legal validity of the argument that by participating in the federal elections Montenegro would recognize constitutional changes, but he does not view it as the real reason behind the boycott:
"Constitutional changes are only a pretext for the boycott. At this moment the DPS is not ready for an electoral battle against the SNP. President Djukanovic and his coalition have made a catastrophically bad assessment of the situation, and will find themselves in an inferior position after these elections. Milosevic will lose the elections, which will lead to the break up of the SPS and its repressive apparatus. In that situation the SNP will try to distance itself from Milosevic and will make an agreement with the Serbian opposition. All that will place Djukanovic in a difficult situation."
This statement reveals the strategy of a part of the Serb opposition, led by Vojislav Kostunica, with respect to Montenegro in case Milosevic is overthrown. Instead of Djukanovic, who has been disliked by Kostunica for a while, they will seek a new partner in Montenegro, the SNP. In case of a victory Kostunica will not need autonomous forces in Montenegro but those with a proven track record in service of masters from Belgrade.
Professor Milan Popovic also noticed in a recent interview to Radio Free Europe that "Vojislav Kostunica's rhetoric about Montenegro is about the same as the rhetoric of the SNP, the chief pro-Milosevic force in Montenegro and the Serb Popular Party, an ultra-nationalist Montenegrin party without representation in the Parliament."
Popovic criticizes the Serbian opposition (besides the Civic Association of Serbia, Socialdemocratic Union, parties from Vojvodina, and a part of the Democratic Party) saying that it has given up the expansionist greater Serbian concept with respect to Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, not because of the realization of tragic consequences but because of newly established military and political reality. "However, Montenegro is viewed as the only remaining territory on which the expansionist consensus can be exercised," says Popovic.
Nevetheless, the chief problem of Montenegro is not that a significant part of the Serbian opposition and authorities has an expansionist attitude with respect to it, but that the support for such a concept can always be found in Montenegro. Not only in the ranks of the SNP but also in that part of the DSP and the NS whose policy is dangerously close to the policy of the Serbian opposition - FR Yugoslavia without Milosevic and at all cost.