The mirage lasted for more than a decade, shattered many illusions and took many lives. Today, after everything, out of the three abovementioned politicians only Djukanovic has politically survived the death of Yugoslavia, the creation and end of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and creation of the new commonwealth of Serbia and Montenegro. Milosevic is irreversibly in the Hague, Bulatovic is irreversibly immersed in self-isolation.
Therefore, the FRY is gone, but the common state remains. Precisely that fact should be of concern for Djukanovic. Will and how he and his DPS survive the new state and remain in power in Montenegro?
Formally, the mechanisms for the protection of interests of the authorities in Montenegro are very strong: the principle of parity in all the institutions of the commonwealth, as well as the right to veto all the decisions of the parliament of Serbia and Montenegro if these are opposed by the ruling authorities in Montenegro; Svetozar Marovic, one of the leaders of the DPS, will be the first president of the commonwealth; a coalition between the ruling Montenegrin socialists and Djindjic’s DOS has already been agreed. Therefore, Djukanovic’s DPS has formally secured for itself the position of the strongest player from Montenegro.
However, form is one thing, essence, frequently, something very different. The problem can be described with the question: how long will the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists be able to sit on both chairs – to officially strive for the independence of Montenegro, while at the same time being an integrative factor of the new commonwealth?
Because, the political scarecrow in Belgrade that can be exploited by Podgorica to hide its own weakness is no more. Unlike Milosevic, who reacted to every opposition from Montenegro with haste, violently and unconstitutionally, the current authorities in Serbia are quietly enduring every spiteful DPS’ action calculating that time is actually working for the commonwealth of Serbia and Montenegro, rather than against it.
And really, in the coming three years the authorities in Podgorica will be obliged – as specified in the Constitutional Charter – to align the political and economic system with Belgrade. In politics, that means that some of captured state authority will be transferred to the commonwealth. Harmonization of the economic relations will make the two hitherto totally separate systems – in Serbia and Montenegro – compatible. Of course, at the expense of Montenegro.
Therefore, there will be no more pretty lies. In order to keep a shot at an independence referendum, Montenegro will have to be different. It will have to be able to support itself. The authorities in Podgorica will have to prove at least two things. That they are capable of implementing reforms and shed the charges of corruption that have been bedeviling them, and also that they have enough power to call an independence referendum – despite the opposition from the international community and some forces in Montenegro.
More precisely, the authorities will have to demonstrate that they are capable of change while maintaining unity. Is that likely to happen, or is the commonwealth play only a way to buy extra time? The extent of trust of the DPS in its program and in the representatives it is sending to Belgrade is revealed by the fact that all of them were ordered to sign letters of resignation that could be activated in the future in case of disobedience. That seems rather like the defense of current positions than a political strategy for the future.
The state that officially came into being this week in Belgrade is neither a federation nor a confederation, but some sort of a hybrid-commonwealth of two states with two currencies and myriad conflicting state institutions, with unsolved problem of Serbia and Montenegro and Kosovo… it is totally clear that that state cannot survive in the form envisaged in the Belgrade agreement and sealed by the Constitutional Charter. Just as Montenegro cannot forever dither between independence and a union with Serbia.