Four decades ago, Edmund Stillman correctly wrote: "The Balkans is the opposite of easy optimism". However, at this point we can ask ourselves whether those who cause a war and those who support them are aware of their own individual and collective responsibility. What are their motives? Do they keep counting on the support they received during the Kosovo crisis? Are they counting on the naivete of the western analysts and journalist and the static nature of the international public opinion? Additionally it seems that certain analysts writing for the Western media continue to by force of habit from the Kosovo crisis sympathize with the UCK, which is today destabilizing territorial integrity and sovereignty of Macedonia. It is undeniable that former victims and heroes under Milosevic's terror, for whom, by the way, during the refugee crisis Macedonia became a second home, have today degenerated into extremists using brutal and violent methods.
Today, one of the most discussed questions among the analysts and political parties in this small state is the question: was the crisis imported from Kosovo or are its roots to be found in Macedonia?
According to the leaders of Albanian political parties in Macedonia, the issue is not terrorism imported from Kosovo, but is based on domestic dissatisfaction and demand for more democracy for the Albanian minority through a change of the Constitution (bilingualism, status of a constituent nation, federalization).
Additionally, aware of the big stake and experiences from the Kosovo war, extremists are intelligently not talking about their shared pan-Albanian goal, or about a change of borders. They know that to do so would lead to a total defeat in the media war. Based on bitter experiences learned form similar expansionist projects, those of Milosevic and Tudman, the UCK is only insisting on the demands that remind one of similar demands of Krajina Serbs in Croatia. "We cannot achieve our goals without use of militaristic methods," emphasized "Sokol" one of the leaders of the Liberation Army of Albanians.
According to Macedonian authorities and political parties, Macedonian-Albanian imbroglio was directly imported form Kosovo. Arguments for such conclusion are obvious and we shall point out a few of them: first, as early as in 1999, immediately after the final operations of NATO against Kosovo, the triumphant spokesperson of the UCK, Jakup Krasniqi stated "... the struggle for national liberation of Albanians does not end in Kosovo, but only continues in the south of Montenegro and north-western Macedonia..."; secondly, it is indicative that enmity towards Macedonia started immediately after the signing of the Macedonian-Yugoslav agreement demarcating the border between two neighboring states, and in practice refers to the border between Macedonia and Kosovo (Yugoslavia) in accordance with the Resolution 1244. That was a bad signal for the Albanians in Kosovo, sent by Macedonia, as Macedonia with that act did not recognize the independence of Kosovo; third, one would need a huge dose of analytical nearsightedness and ignorance to conclude that the triumph of NATO in Kosovo, appropriated by the UCK in the meantime, did not prompt expected (but unforeseen by NATO strategists) feedback in the region. The syndrome experienced by many nations, such as Japanese after Pearl Harbor, Vietnamese after Dien Bien Phu, or Arabs at the start of Yom Kippur war (a Jewish religious holiday, when Israel was surprised by the Egyptian Army) is now experienced by the Albanians in the Balkans after the withdrawal of the Yugoslav Army from Kosovo. Destabilization first spread to the south of Serbia (Presevo, Bujanovac, Medvedja), then to Macedonia and there are certain indications that the south of Montenegro is waiting for its turn. Albanian adventurers and extremists, after the disarmament of the UCK, full of pride, self-confidence, as well as animosity and lack of tolerance with respect to the Eastern Orthodox [Slav] population, turned to their old and tested public relations excuse, that "the lack of official bilingualism" in one of the most peaceful states in the Balkans, Macedonia, is sufficient motivation to reach for weapons.
Perfectly trained by the British and American military experts for battle against Milosevic's troops, they continued their training in Albania and Kosovo, near the border with Macedonia. In that, they persistently promote the claim that everything originated in Macedonia, with the goal of achieving the second marketing-propaganda goal, to portray this conflict as a domestic conflict provoked by doubtful democracy and ethnic discrimination of a minority by a majority. Although it was obvious that most infiltrators to the territory of Macedonia came from Kosovo, KFOR troops were indifferent with respect to these infiltrations and did not react on the account of "old friendship" from two years ago and the lack of mandate regarding the security of Macedonia. They were paid only to provide security in Kosovo. Consequently UCK terrorists responded with friendly gestures or indifference on their part. According to a report of the Macedonian Police, on several occasions Macedonian security forces found in bunkers used by extremists packets of dry food supplied by KFOR and UNHCR. Finally, the overall situation in Macedonia was favorable for the terrorist alchemists and was feeding their dream and dissatisfaction. The number, frequency and duration of different imposed trade embargoes, both internally and with respect to the former Yugoslav market and other markets, is a phenomenon of sorts. Due to such unfavorable trends, but above all due to military clashes in the neighborhood, Macedonia is going through an exceptionally painful post-communist transition. The described unfavorable developments and structures are a favorable terrain for ambitions of adventurers and terrorists from Kosovo and Macedonia. With an average GNP of $1801 per capita, a record unemployment rate (36%), high population growth rate of the Albanian population (15 per 1000 inhabitants), average salary of FF700 [about $94] per month, and average monthly market basket of FF695 [about $93] for a four-member family, Macedonia is among the poorest countries in the Balkans. She paid the social price of the Kosovo crisis, after a closure of the Yugoslav market (unemployment increase of 9%). Today, military operations cost at least FF6-7 million [about $900,000-$1,000,000] per day. Consequently, it is easy to understand the anger of Macedonians with respect to Kosovo.
With the goal of finally unmasking the true nature of the UCK terrorists, it is necessary to analyze the demands for the federalization of Macedonia. The establishment of a federal unit in the part of Macedonia bordering Albania and Kosovo is undeniably related to the greater pan-Albanian project, rejected by the official Tirana. Officially Hashim Thaci also rejects this project, but the nature of events denies his pronouncements. Namely, on several occasions, Kosovo leaders stated that "independent Kosovo implies the stability of the region..." Having in mind that the independence of Kosovo has become unrealistic, that increases their motivation to destabilize the neighborhood. On the other hand, the Macedonian democracy is definitely not ideal, but there is the mood to address the Albanians' complaints from the past and resolve them gradually, in accordance with the objective capabilities of the state. A big step has been made in that direction. However, terrorists chose a revolutionary, violent path. That is why the government and opposition in Macedonia are united. They reject dialog with extremists. Today, the situation in this part of the Balkans is alarming, and enmities strong. The only dilemma is whether enmity between ethnic groups has reached the point of no return, and the total destruction of the former successful model of inter-ethnic life. Macedonia is waiting???
(The author is a representative in the Macedonian Parliament; this article was published in the most recent issue of the Paris "Liberation")