used without permission, for "fair use" only

Nothing is Over!

by Radovan Pavic

Hrvatsko Slovo, Zagreb, Croatia, January 22 1999

Approach

Is there a Kosovo problem after all? Having in mind the current circumstances the question appears to be nonsensical and silly. However, it makes a lot of sense! If the situation is analyzed from the point of view of human rights, equality, the right of small nations to their will (with absolute respect for the rights of others), and justice in general, then the problem really exists. Of course, only for the weak. But if it is analyzed in the context of politics and international relations then there is no problem because the international power brokers (who support Serbia) have agreed with Milosevic that Kosovo remains in Serbia/Yugoslavia. Consequently, the problem has already been solved (at least for now), and everything happening now is only the implementation of the general consensus followed with a lot of tactical one-upmanship, while the essence of the problem has already been solved. Thus, it follows that the problem has only been temporarily solved because the pacification and imposition of international solutions on liberation leanings of a nation can only be a collateral for future clashes.

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Kosovo and Human Rights

The topic of human rights has become recently (at least formally) one of the main issues of global significance. That is the result of objective advances in the development of inter-personal relations, but also the result of the fact that the human rights issue can be abused for all sorts of pressures (only on the weak, of course). When there are no other acceptable reasons for pressures, these can easily be found, and if necessary fabricated, in the field of human rights. Consequently, human rights issues are a precious weapon in the hands of the powerful nations. In that sense we observe: Kosovo is today one of the best indicators that the struggle for human rights in the hands of the world powers is actually an arrogant and empty lie and that it serves other goals: in Kosovo, where human rights violations are egregious the International Community has not made any effective moves against Serbia, and those are possible of course. However, that does not suit certain interests and these are: Great World powers are actually supporting Serbia and are only suppressing the Serbian extremism, thereby defending Serbia from itself, and giving it an opportunity to become a normal and acceptable member of the International Community. Moreover, Russia is a Serbian ally. By the way, although the situation in Russia totally lacks future prospects (except for the intensification of problems, i.e. chaos), Russia is still a nuclear power. Russia is aware that it is begging (although not too successfully these days) but is also aware that the West will assist her if serious chaos and disintegration ensues. The West has to put up because it is better to pay Russians to stay in their country than to deal with millions of refugees. Thus, Russia, although so weak, is at the same time very powerful. It stands behind Serbia and everyone must take that into account.

As far as the struggle of the World Powers for human rights in the former Yugoslavia is concerned, it turns out, at least formally, that it is the struggle for the rights of all, while in reality it is the struggle for the rights (and privileges) of Serbs in, where else, Croatia! Everything else is a huge lie.

Interests of World Powers

These interests are completely clear and simple. First, instead of a real solution on the historical level, pacification of any sort and intensity will do, all depending on the needs. Naturally, not the Albanian needs.

That pacification was left to Serbia. More precisely, Serbia is in charge of the pacification. Serbia was (partly) successful in that task. Therefore, instead of historical justice the basis for the solution ("solutions") was found in pacification. Great!

Second, the crisis must under no circumstances spread to western Macedonia, because that could lead to at first federalization of Macedonia, and later its partial break up with the likelihood of the establishment of a whole Albania (that would not be some "greater" Albania, as is usually said when superficiality, ignorance, and especially fabrications are concerned) because that would change the balance of power in the region at Serbia's account. Because of the same reason the establishment of the whole Croatia (again under no circumstances Greater Croatia, that has negative connotations, but Croatia which would unite its divided people in a state with at least 50% Croatian majority), and all that in parallel with negation of historic borders which are a legacy of conquest and colonialism. Third, one people in one state. It is an important interest of the Great Powers to suppress the idea that all members of one nation should live in one state. This idea is, of course, unacceptable if some other, especially geopolitical criteria are not fulfilled. But, the Great Powers do not care for the situations when those other criteria are fulfilled and when it would be very justified that all or at least the majority of the members of one nation live in one state; the world is against that, but it can only give two suspicious reasons for its antagonism: the idea is unacceptable for the Great Powers depending on the balance of power and interests and only when small nations are concerned. Only the small nations do not have the right to live in the same state: consequently some Mongols must live in China (that is the consequence of the Chinese conquest), Albanians must live in Serbia and Macedonia, which is also the result of another aggression and of course, all of that is "acceptable"! At the same time, none of the international power brokers would even think that some of the Spaniards with their compact territory (therefore an ethnic space) would have to live in Portugal or France, therefore under Portuguese or French administration. Or that some of the French ethnic space should be in Italy and live under Italian authorities, or that a part of German ethnic space should be in Poland (why shouldn't Poland occupy a part of Germany!). Why shouldn't some Russians live in territorially enlarged Finland, some of the British in enlarged France etc., etc...

Let us finally turn to the most important example and the most important question: why can all the Germans live in a single state? Why is the unification of Germany considered to be the guarantee of European security and stability? Why is it considered to be a natural and just final solution? Germans caused a horrible global disaster fifty years ago and were punished by a division. After the conditions for that division disappeared, Germany united and everyone considered that to be natural, necessary and unquestionable. However, the Albanians, who haven't caused any disaster, are nevertheless punished with a division, but without the right to unification! While on one hand the unification of Germany is considered to be a factor of peace and fulfillment of justice, and while today no one talks about united Germany as "greater" Germany (and with clearly negative connotations), why is then, on the other hand, a potential unification of the Albanian ethnic space given negative connotations of some "greater" Albania? Why do not the same standards apply to Germans? Why should not the division of Germany be considered to benefit Europe, as applies to Albanians divided in three states? Why shouldn't the desire for the unification of the German ethnic space as some "greater" Germany be qualified as a danger for the balance of power in Europe and European (regional) security in general? Why, why? The answer is very simple: because more numerous nations have greater rights than less numerous nations. That is clear, as is clear that stupid questions about logic and justice are useless. After all, we are talking about politics here, aren't we? It seems that only small nations and those in unfavorable geopolitical position are destined to have parts of their majority ethnic space, located next to their borders, divided between different states and that they have to live in other, somebody else's states. But, let it be, this article will be read by politicians and "politicians" so there is no sense in arguing about logic. Thus, the matter here is not some "greater" Albania with all the negative connotations of that term. It is only Albania! We could talk about greater Albania only if the Albanians had claims on foreign and somebody else's ethnic space, and that definitely is not and cannot be the case.

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Other Possible Solutions and Views

The problem of Kosovo, although tragic, is mostly not very interesting, since its conclusion is actually already known: It will be without much justice, except if KLA wins, or at least proves itself as a factor in the field. Therefore, if KLA does what Croatia did only partly and has not finished in the Croatian Danube region, because she either did not dare or did not manage. Because of that, Croatia even today has so much trouble in the Croatian Danube region, and the future must be anticipated with foreboding. (We must face the fact that the Croatian Danube region is in the Republic of Croatia, but it is still not Croatian Croatia and the situation is not developing in that direction, but in the direction of the strengthening of the Serb factor. It can be predicted that in the future there will be demands that the Serb Municipalities Council become a political institution of the Serbs in the Republic of Croatia, as an expression of the striving of Serbs for political autonomy. In that, they can obviously expect to receive support of the International Powerbrokers. Do not call me an alarmist, but simply shed your illusions. Because, those who live with illusions, die from reality!) Two scenarios are possible for the development and solution of the situation in Kosovo: the one that does not satisfy Albanian historical strivings and only postpones the problem (for 10, 20, 50 years, it does not matter), and the other, which has a truly historical, and therefore just character. According to the first scenario, obviously a military victory by Serbia was expected. It was expected to destroy armed resistance by KLA and conduct, although not total, definitely a sufficient and horrible ethnic cleansing/genocide. In that case, Great World Powers accept fait accompli but not the total Serbian victory in order to obtain at least some meaningful improvements, nevertheless far from the true and just, and thus historical solution. In that, the total victory by Serbia can only be prevented by NATO (although I find that unlikely). After that, the combatants would be separated, if KLA survives after all (as did happen) and than, a sort of Daytonization of Kosovo, where Albanians would fight for the status similar to that envisaged for the Serbs in Croatia according to the plan Z-4. However, after all that, the Balkan powder keg only gets another hoop, which can hold only for a limited time.

According to a different scenario, a just solution is possible, but only after a military victory by KLA, and that will require time. Incidentally, it is not important that KLA occupy all of Kosovo. It must make the survival of Serbs and Serbia in Kosovo impossible, which can be achieved with guerilla warfare. In other words, KLA becomes the key for a solution and everything else is less important. Thus, only a just solution does not contain a germ of another conflict. A potential KLA victory is definitely undesirable for the Great World Powers and that is why they expect its defeat, either by Serbia, or by NATO, if Serbia needs NATO's assistance. Therefore, Kosovo must be isolated from Albania and west Macedonia, which are the only training and supply bases for Kosovo. This issue resolves the fate of Kosovo. If Kosovo is isolated, then it is logical to expect the imposition of a solution favorable to Serbs (with assistance of international powerbrokers) in the near future. In that context, it should be noticed that both Serbia and Great Powers will try to exclude KLA from the negotiating process, because KLA can really become the key factor in the real solution of the whole crisis.

Therefore, the Great Powers wanted to wait for Milosevic's (partial) military victory, but to limit it and bring Milosevic into trouble with threats, in order to soften, but in the end save him (as on the approaches to Banja Luka or with the ban of the continuation of the operation "Storm" towards the Croatian Danube region). At the same time Great Powers will make a KLA military victory impossible by impeding KLA in its struggle, protecting Serbia from itself, and imposing some sort of Dayton-like solution within the framework of FRY. In that, we must not forget that even Slav peoples could not live in the same state and that no one wanted nor wants to live with Serbs, unless temporarily forced to do so. And now, the political immaturity of the Great Powers becomes obvious: now the Albanians are supposed to establish a fruitful commonwealth with Serbs, after everything - give me a break! That is a similar problem as in Bosnia-Hercegovina: all great multi cultural European products broke up after WWI and WWII (even the former Yugoslavia) and now exactly Bosnia-Hercegovina and Kosovo must be a negation of a completed historical process.

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Translated on 2/23/99