Darkness with no Timetable

Feral Tribune, Split, Croatia, August 31 1998

A recent visit by Yugoslav Minister of Foreign Affairs Zivorad Jovanovic to Zagreb was portrayed for the public as a more-or-less routine "normalization" visit to the Croatian colleague, Dr. Mate Granic. Only two concrete results of the meeting were emphasized in brief newspaper reports: the agreement about the avoidance of double taxation and the agreement about the exchange of all prisoners held by both sides. The first agreement is a precondition for the establishment of ordinary trade links and is signed by all countries which want to engage in normal trade; the second agreement is a legal curiosity because, according to the international laws, no country has the rights to free persons sentenced, for example, for war crimes. But, after all, in Serbo-Croatian agreements, such violations of international legal conventions are not news.

However, according to some information that was leaked to Feral, the most important issue raised by the Yugoslav side was the return of Serb refugees from Yugoslavia to Croatia. Curiously enough, that wasn't mentioned in the reports for the public. According to our sources, the policy of "transplantation" of Serbs from Croatia to FR Yugoslavia has utterly failed; there are several reasons for that. First, the (never published) plan to settle Croatian Serbs in Kosovo and somewhat change the ethnic composition of the population there failed even before the break out of the war in Kosovo. Croatian Serbs, apart from the insignificant minority, refused to settle in the region at the brink of another war.

Pupovac's Statistics

Finally, the third, and maybe most important reason that could force FR Yugoslavia to give up "humane resettlement" is the International Community pressure for the return of refugees to their homes. Thus, our sources state, FR Yugoslavia has allowed the refugees to make their own choice and those, increasingly numerous, who decide to return to "mother Croatia" will get government's support.

True, the data from the field indicate that the number of Serbs returning to Croatia is significantly higher than could have been expected until recently. Thus, according to the data recently presented by Dr. Milorad Pupovac, about seven thousands of Serb refugees have returned only to the Knin region and the total number of Serb returnees is 42,000. However, that number includes as many as 18,000 Serbs returning from east Slavonia to their pre-war homes in other parts of Croatia.

Road to Emigration

Whatever the case, the return process has started. Thus, for example, more than 2,000 Serbs have returned to Plaski municipality and they now the largest ethnic group there; the situation in the municipalities of Korenica, Donji Lapac, Srb and Dvor on Una, where the Serbs now constitute more than 50% of population, is similar. The most serious problems regarding the return are in Glina, Petrinja and, especially, Kostajnica. Our sources claim that the reason for that is that HDZ, namely Duro Brodarac, is in power in all 13 municipalities and towns in that region. As we found out, the situation in Kostajnica hasn't changed at all since the last year's visit by Madeleine Albright.

In the meantime, the region next to the border with Bosnia-Hercegovina, near Velika Kladusa, due to nightly looting raids which were apparently supported by the Police, has been totally cleansed of the returnees! It is not easy to dispel doubts that the strategic goal of the present authorities is to eliminate Serb population from that territory, especially because it borders the region inhabited by another "suspicious" group: Abdic's Bosniaks.

In spite of that, the return to other parts of Croatia continues daily; nevertheless, it appears that the Croatian authorities are still trying to hinder that process. They accepted the return only after international pressure and even those points agreed in written agreements are in practice delayed as much as possible. The biggest problem at the moment is the work of apartment commissions which, according to the published and accepted Plan for Return were supposed to be an institutional means for a quick and efficient return of confiscated property that had mostly been given to the Croat refugees from Bosnia-Hercegovina by the local authorities. However that procedure is full of delays. Thus it could easily happen that a large number of Serbs who return to Croatia by next Spring will not be able to return to their houses and will have to consider emigration as the second best solution.

Reason for Headache

Also, one can ask why Croatia doesn't insist on the return of Croat refugees to Bosnia-Hercegovina, both the Federation and the Republic of Srpska, and to Vojvodina? It seems that one can see an outline of a plan here. Namely, 300,000 Serb refugees in FR Yugoslavia do not have and cannot until this day obtain Yugoslav citizenship, which means that, until further notice, they can be used as pawns in both stories. They could return to Croatia, or they could be repatriated in Serbia. On the other hand, the Croatian authorities could be satisfied if they ensure that only a part of Serb refugees returns, and if they manage to legalize the "transplantation" of Croats from Bosnia-Hercegovina; that would be a partial success for HDZ.

For now, it is certain that all prisoners will return to their home countries.