by Zoran DASKALOVIC and Andrej OBLAK
However, more careful readers of the first published population census results claim that they can already fairly precisely establish changes in the ethnic composition of the population, at least in the part of Croatia liberated in the operation "Storm", i.e. the territories where until 1991 significant numbers of Serbs lived. That is why possible manipulation of census data already seems futile. Even the new territorial organization of Croatia cannot be an obstacle for comparison of the data about ethnic composition of the population in those territories, collected in this year's population census, with the data from year 1991. Furthermore, such a comparison suggests the conclusion that the motivation for the change in the territorial organization of Croatia was probably to disperse Serb population and reduce the number of Serbs in certain local and regional territorial units (for example, some settlements with ethnic Serb majority were moved from the municipality Donji Lapac to the municipality Gracac, and then all together moved to another county). In order to conduct comparative analysis of these data, it is only necessary to use this year's census results broken down by settlements, and return those settlements that have been moved from one municipality to another back to where they were in 1991. According to the 1991 population census there were 582,000 Serbs in Croatia and they were majority in 13 municipalities (Donji Lapac, Vojnic, Knin, Dvor, Gracac, Korenica, Vrginmost, Obrovac, Kostajnica, Glina, Benkovac, Petrinja, Pakrac), and were significantly represented (between 20 and 50 percent of population) in the population of another 14 municipalities (Vukovar, Podravska Slatina, Ogulin, Daruvar, Grubisno Polje, Gospic, Otocac, Slunj, Beli Manastir, Karlovac, Sisak, Nova Gradiska, Drnis, and Orahovica). The former 13 municipalities had all together 255,000 inhabitants, 173,000 or two thirds of them Serbs, while in the latter 14 municipalities, out of 582,000 inhabitants 165,000 (one third) were Serbs. Therefore, in those 27 municipalities, out of 837,000 overall inhabitants, 338,000 (40 percent) were Serbs. Serbs also lived in significant numbers in a few large cities (Osijek, Virovitica, Rijeka, Sibenik, Zadar, Split, and Zagreb), where all together there were another 144,000 of them, while the remaining 110,000 lived scattered all over Croatia.
Data from the "Croatian population census for 2001" immediately show that the overall population in the parts of Croatia where Serbs were in majority or a significant part of population in 1991 has significantly decreased between the two censuses. Thus, in the municipalities liberated in the operation "Storm" in the settlements with Serb majority the population has decreased significantly in comparison with 1991. In the Benkovac municipality the population in settlements with Serb majority has decreased by more than 80 percent in comparison with 1991, in Drnis by more than 70 percent, in Donji Lapac by more than 70 percent, in Obrovac by more than 80 percent, in Knin by more than 70 percent, in Gracac by more than 85 percent, in Korenica by more than 70 percent, in Gospic by more than 80 percent, in Otocac by more than 75 percent, in Vojnic by more than 35 percent, Vrginmost by more than 60 percent, in Slunj by more than 90 percent, Dvor more than 60 percent, Glina more than 70 percent, Kostajnica by more than 40 percent and in Petrinja by more than 70 percent. This drop in population of settlements with formerly Serb majority clearly indicates that they are mostly abandoned and deserted. Exact numbers, precisely testify about that.
For illustration, let us consider Lika, the former association of municipalities Gospic, in which Serbs were majority in 1991. Within the borders of the five municipalities of the former association of municipalities Gospic (Gospic, Gracac, Otocac, Donji Lapac and Korenica), early this year the census takers found about 46,000 inhabitants, while in 1991 there were about 84,000 inhabitants, almost 42,000 of them Serbs. Therefore, those five municipalities in Lika today have 38,000 inhabitants less than in 1991, and the data from this years population census indicate that it is not a coincidence that that figure is almost identical to the number of Serbs living in Lika in 1991. In 1991, ten settlement of Medacki pocket had all together 2190 inhabitants, 2034 of them Serbs. Today, 133 persons live in those settlements, 94 percent less than in 1991. Divoselo, with 344 inhabitants in 1991, is today deserted, just like Pocitelj, a village with 304 inhabitants in 1991. The same pattern is repeated in other settlements in the Gospic municipality where Serbs were in majority in 1991, as well as in the municipalities of Gracac, Otocac, Donji Lapac, and Korenica. Smaller drops in population have been recorded only in municipal centers and a few urban settlements, due to the arrival of a large number of settlers.
The same story about precipitous drops in population is repeated in Bukovica, Banija and Kordun, in all municipalities liberated in the operation "Storm" where Serbs were a significant part of population or in majority. Population census data about the number of inhabitants in at one time Serb majority settlements without doubt confirm that the number of inhabitants in those territories has significantly decreased in comparison with 1991 because of a decrease in the number of Serbs living there. Data about that cannot be hidden anymore, and the margin for possible manipulation with the data about the ethnic composition of the population of Croatia has been narrowed down to those territories and larger cities where a decrease in population cannot easily be connected with the decrease of Serb population.
However, there is far less motivation to manipulate those figures, if any, because the fact that in 16 municipalities liberated in the operation "Storm" in settlements where Serbs were an overwhelming majority of population, six years after the liberation and their integration in the Croatian administration, the overall population has on average been reduced by 75 percent, is a black stain that can be justified only with utmost difficulty. This fact also hides the indictment that one of the goals of liberation of those territories was a permanent expulsion of the Serb majority, because otherwise their number would not have decreased so precipitously. And the final account about the ethnic composition of the population in those regions can only confirm the data that can already be discerned from the published results about the total population in those regions: there are hardly any Serbs there.