That is a really difficult question, since behind it is the evaluation of the military factor. But, we reply to that question by asking Belgrade: what are we going to do with that sea? Are we going to pump it out, move somewhere? The sea stays where it is. But we would have to agree on the principles of payment for that. On the other hand, FR Yugoslavia isn't going to be able to play the card of its military might for much longer: all the states coming out of the breakup of the former Yugoslavia will be relatively small, maybe even too sovereign; the result of this will be the formation of pure local oligarchies which will be hard to replace through democratic means; I am afraid that all of us will somehow remain small, next to the big, united Europe.
Let us return to "the evaluation of the military factor" which you have just mentioned.
As far as the sea and the fleet, which once upon a time defended an almost 1000 kilometers long coast line, are concerned, the forces which have been brought to the Boka Kotorska Bay have no strategic or military importance. And now they want to take away the most beautiful part of the Montenegrin coast, Valdanos inlet near Ulcinj, a protected environment, designated as a zone for elite tourism, with more than 80,000 olive trees. With that in mind, we asked a question in the Parliament: should Montenegro really defend itself with ships when the Montenegrin coast is, from the strategic point of view, ideally suited to construction of coastal defenses, like on the island of Malta for example? It may be that the military leadership believes and quietly accepts the theory that Montenegro is already moving toward independence; therefore they might be preparing the fleet to turn its gun barrels on its own coast?
Milosevic will answer to that question and decide about [the war]. If he, more specifically the company which calls itself FR Yugoslavia, enters the war, that will be horror, a festival well worth seeing. However, our assessment is that he cannot win that war. He would experience a military defeat and we hope that he understands that. Internal situation, both military and political, will force him to that conclusion; in spite of everything one cannot deny his cruel and pragmatic approach to politics.
I have noticed that you are wearing a t-shirt with a logo saying "State of Montenegro". Will you live long enough to experience the independence?
I hope I will. People support us and because of that I am an optimist; I firmly believe that the people will get a chance to decide their own destiny.
In that Yugoslavia, with Serbia, we don't have a chance. That Yugoslavia will have huge problems because all this will last for a long time. After Bosnia, it will be Kosovo's turn; after Kosovo, it will be Sandzak's turn, than Vojvodina's. FR Yugoslavia is a state which wants to base itself on ethnic foundations but refuses to understand that it has more than 32% on non Serb population. The ruling team bases its policy on the authoritarian , anachronistic political consciousness, which thinks that force resolves everything.
Is the Montenegrin national consciousness so strong that the Montenegrin people sees its future only in its own state?
There is a sufficient will and energy in Montenegro to take that state out of Yugoslavia. We are convinced that the sovereign Montenegro project is so advanced that it has been transformed in a wide and powerful river which Belgrade must take into account.
What are the basic complaints about the relations between the federation and Montenegro?
Elementary understanding of things brings to a conclusion that something making up 95% of a whole cannot be equal with something making up only 5% of the same whole. With that in mind, Belgrade's behavior with respect to Montenegro is natural, in a way; the power ratio is too one sided for that 5% to have any equality in the state sense. Secondly, Montenegro's Mediterranean position is different from that of Serbia. They have changed our orientation and want to turn Montenegro into a continental state. Also, there is that old story about how Serbia subsidizes Montenegro. But that is a big lie and a whole structure of political consciousness in Belgrade is built on that taboo topic. Montenegro has always supported itself, one way or another; our economics experts claim that even in these conditions Montenegro would in a short time and relatively painlessly (since it is a small state with a small number of inhabitants and with a well educated work force) in about ten years, become a place for a decent life on the Mediterranean.
I must admit that with every passing day there is less and less chance for that. Actual events reveal the monstrous plan whose goal is a tripartite division of Bosnia. But those who want the division of Bosnia do not understand that that division will be fateful for this whole area. In the divided Bosnia, someone will always be unhappy, and those people will be manipulated from two centers, either Zagreb or Belgrade. War euphoria will pass and the three-part Bosnia will be the defeat of everything noble that has existed in this space. In that combination all of this area, including Montenegro, will be written off by the democratic world.
We support Mediterranean integrations, since Montenegro has a Mediterranean orientation; therefore we would like to have excellent relations with all neighbors.
Could you be a bit more specific regarding the relations with Croatia?
As far as Croatia and the Montenegrin attack on Dubrovnik are concerned, the attack had a hidden message: for the first time a wall of hate was established between the two people; two people who have never fought; the wall was established especially towards the parts of population living in Konavle and Dubrovnik. You remember that Dubrovnik and Herceg Novi were almost a single city; they made up a single tourist region in which there were a lot of friendships and interethnic marriages. However, when the war started, we warned that Prevlaka is only a bait for an average Montenegrin citizen who had accepted the war campaign. On the other hand, I personally know tens and even hundreds of people who refused to accept a gun and fight in that war.
What about Prevlaka?
As far as Prevlaka is concerned, it is clear that it was a sham. In the strategic sense, Prevlaka would have be interesting if we were living in 1850, for example. However, today, with existence of rocket launchers, those 2.5 square kilometers of area don't mean anything to anyone. From the very beginning we were proposing that Prevlaka becomes a demilitarized zone, that Boka [Bay of Kotor] and the whole Montenegrin coats become a demilitarized zone and that in the end, Croatia and Montenegro together modify Austrian fortifications on Prevlaka. This war is the worst shame in the Montenegrin history.
Is there support for your policies in Serbian opposition parties?
General opinion is that in a certain democratic sense, Serbian opposition doesn't exist at all. We have relations with Vesna Pesic's Citizen Association [Gradanski Savez, GS], with Nenad Canak and Dragan Veselinov. We have good political communications and an understanding with these people. We also have relations with Vuk Draskovic [the president of one of the largest Serbian opposition parties, the Serbian Renewal Movement, SPO] but not as often or as cordially as with others.
We believe that Vuk Draskovic has evolved in his thinking. His SPO made a catastrophic error by making an attempt to compete with Milosevic over who is a greater Serb. The fundamental problem in Serbia is not the national problem but democracy. However, they were not prepared to accept that game.
Having in mind the state of political consciousness of the strongest part of Serbian opposition, especially the part led by Seselj [leader of the Serbian Radical Party, SRS], Kostunica [leader of the Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS] and Dindic [leader of the Democratic Party, DS], and the new role of Milosevic, who isn't any more "the biggest serb nationalist", do you think that linking of that group with Karadzic could lead to a political instability in Serbia and even to a civil war as is predicted in certain places?
I could not agree that a civil war is possible in Serbia, since I think that there is no energy for something like that. When I say a war, I mean a conflict between Serbs and Serbs. In any case, horrendous and serious conflicts of a court character, with a lot of dirty tricks and a decorum which is customary for that sort of fights are likely to happen. However, I think that Milosevic has enough strength and self confidence to use this situation as a factor for consolidation of his position. He can only come out of this situation stronger than before.