MESSIAHS IN WAITING

By proclaiming a moratorium on questions of Tudjman's demise, and leaving everything to the almighty biology, HDZ remained under the level of reformed communists, who declared the end of their communist era ten years ago. Seks's idea to limit presidential authority is in the long-term convenient for HDZ, firstly because no person in the party would be able to bear the "messianic" legacy left behind by Tudjman. Secondly, HDZ factions can coexist with each other only if none of them takes over the complete dominance over the others, and the presidential function is the easiest way to achieve that.

by Marinko CULIC

Feral Tribune, Split, Croatia, December 6, 1999

Since HDZ proclaimed their leader and founder temporarily dead (a cynical remark of a foreign observer), a historical moment has come; the moment was recognised, even by the most short-sited, as the end of Tudjman's era. But, this turning point is still in a shell that needs to be opened, and the interpretations that Canjuga has already done it by shouting that he's fed up with Tudjman are completely superficial. Just as Tudjman didn't march on the Croatian political stage just because he was followed by Bakovic or Duka, he won't depart the scene just because Canjuga or Vitez said so.

Croatia is still waiting for a qualified messenger who will announce that the ten-year rule of Franjo Tudjman is over, and there has been emptiness here for weeks, that no one dares to fill in. It could have been done by the Parliament, by applying the law on permanent incapacitation of the head of the state, but they preferred to brake the Constitution and send themselves, instead of him, to the wasteland. The similar thing happened with HDZ. HDZ proclaimed a moratorium on the question of Tudjman's demise, left everything to the almighty biology, and thereby remained below the level of reformed communists, who proclaimed the end of their communist era ten years ago.

LOST SHEPHERDS

Tudjman's rule differs from the time before that inasmuch as he did not belong exclusively to HDZ. About 10% of non-HDZ voters identified with it, and these days some opposition politicians (Tomac) express such admiration for it, as if they had secretly secretly admired it all this time. This means that it is not necessary for someone from HDZ to proclaim the end of Tudjman's era - although they will have to do it sooner or later if they want to survive - but one of his companions who have more or less identified with his patriotic "vision" can also do it.

Only a part of the "independent" media has followed this path by now. They secretly sneaked out of Tudman's camp in the mid nineties, but their conversion was not sincere, and fell far below the level of what Mesic and Manolic had done before that.

This was the reason why the two key institutions, the opposition and the Church, were so eagerly awaited to speak up. They have been too close to Tudjman during the last decade; consequently they must have been among the first institutions to realize that a new era was coming, an era in which Tudman's authority will disappear forever, and new people take over the helm.

Wishful thinking! The Church lidership has sent a pastoral letter to the public, in which they seem literally lost in time and space, as no relevant Croatian problem was mentioned in it. Probably because they believe that problems shouldn't be shared with common people, and that's perhaps why they didn't mention the elections, either.

That's why the theologian Bono Zvonimir Sagi criticized the bishops for "failing to speak about the past more concretely". On the contrary, by advising the believers to vote against advocates of anti-Catholic values, they made the impression of being partial, as they didn't criticise "those who appeal to Christianity, but do the opposite".

Ignoring their old custom to treat the Church with more respect than some of its servants, some of the opposition parties (SDP) spoke about the Church, but with much caution. They didn't fully understand the meaning of a part of the bishops' message which states that foreign factors shouldn't influence the results of Croatian elections. This small spat on the pages of Vjesnik between Bozanic's and Racan's headquarters - the two most likely future centers of the power in Croatia - might not be worth mentioning if the day earlier the sharpest attack on the American policy and the American embassy in Zagreb had not appeared in the same newspaper.

CATHOLIC STATE

The Americans were accused in that article of a "democratic coup" against Croatia, conceived so that, through the opposition, the media (among which is Feral) and non-government institutions, the present administration is deprived of its leaders in the ofrthcoming elections. Therefore, a dusguised informer unsed in Vjesnik the same language that had been used two days earlier by the Croatian bishops; this fact alone should be enough to make the Church officials turn red like a bishop's hat. Truth to tell, it is easy to recall several Bozanic's statements in which the relations with the world were seen through a very different pair of spectacles.

It also shouldn't be hard to prove that the US aren't, or shouldn't be a sacred cow of the world, and that if France is these days yet again showsing that it isn't thrilled with the idea of too close co-operation with the overseas partner, the same right should be given to the smaller countries. But, if there's such a strong collusion between opinions of the darkest spies and most exalted church officials before these elections that should bring change, than it really seems that someone wants to make Croatia a real isolated Catholic state that will keep away the materialistic and perverted West, as well as the spiritually separated East.

In this way Tudjman's obsession with great conflicts between civilisations would gain its paradoxical triumph, exactly at the moment when he is parting with this world, and the illusions he was a slave to. And this is a good moment to go back to the opposition parties, as they've never showed any interest for even the most superficial layers of Tudjman's worldview and ideology. That's why they now seem to think that the separation from them will be easy to achieve, or that it will even come by itself, which is proved by the last week's pre-election declaration of the six opposition parties.

GUARANTEE OF BALANCE

They are not in the least troubled by hard and tiring issues of the recent past. Instead of that, they have eagerly devoted themselves to the post-election time, already dividing up all the positions of power that will be auctioned at the parliamentary elections. It is completely absurd that the only one who entered the electoral cycle with the ambition of the more or less thought out and well-rounded non-tudjmanism is Vlatko Pavletic, who, like a Croatian Kerensky, enjoys the support of the old and the new elite, but who will probably in the end be betrayed by both.

He was the first one to utter the heretical sentence "Pantovcak [presidential residence in Zagreb] no longer exists"; he histrionically opened his medical records to the public scrutiny, and he even indirectly debated Tudjman's theory about the clash of civilisations (Pavletic is for the dialogue and "convergence"). These were the first steps needed to leave Tudjman's rule behind, and if he weren't so narcissistic and too talkative Pavletic might have even had the honor to be the first one to do that. Instead, it seems that his party rivals have decided to let him burn out with his hot rhetoric and simply fade away at the end of his short term in office.

In the meantime, some people seem to deliberately let Pavletic work for them, which was rather clear from the Seks's statement that HDZ was for reducing presidential authorities, which immediately caused confusion in the party, and an unusual intervention by Ivica Ropus, who said that it was Seks' personal opinion. It is clear that Seks' statement was opposed so strongly because of the assessment that HDZ has more chances to win the presidential elections than the parliamentary, which would represent a guarantee of a rather stable balance of power.

STATE RECEIVERSHIP

It is also clear that Seks's idea is the only one convenient in the long-term for HDZ, above all because no one in the party can bear such a heavy "messianic" legacy that Tudjman has left to the party.

Secondly, HDZ factions can coexist with each other only if none of them ends up completely dominating the others, and the presidential function would be the easiest way to achieve that. The importance of not to making a wrong move here is seen in the trouble that the six opposition parties are having with the presidential elections. Truth to tel, they have at least made clear that the presidential system should be replaced with the parliamentary one.

This means that the president elected in the next elections would only be a state "receiver", who would only initiate a change of the Constitution and call the new elections. But, few people can be trusted not to violate this framework and attempts to become "Tudjman after Tudjman". That's why even the most likely SDP-HSLS presidential candidate, Drazen Budisa, will have to guarantee with his signature that he will not be the president for more than several months, and that he will do what he is expected to.

The coalition of the four opposition parties has taken one step further, as they seek candidates among the non-party people, who are believed to be able to control their appetites more successfully (the name of Jadranko Crnic is mentioned in the press, but no agreement has been reached yet).

Will the honour to turn off the light in Tudjman's pub be reserved for someone who very rarely visited the place, and even more rarely drank on the boss' account?

Translated by Feral Tribune and M.Kocic