Quietest Divorce of Alija and Haris

Dani, Sarajevo, Bosnia-Hercegovina, November 12 1999

A definite political split of former closest collaborators Izetbegovic and Silajdzic is a political paradox, as well as a sad event: they are parting their ways at the moment when their relations are much better than they were in the past, while they were in the same political party and the same coalition. Enthusiasm and relief with which Cengic, Ganic, and Bicakcic on the one side, and almost the complete leadership of the Party for Bosnia-Hercegovina on the other side, received the news about the end of the Coalition for United and Democratic Bosnia-Hercegovina can be only compared to Izetbegovic's disappointment and Silajdzic's nostalgia.

The de facto dissolution of the coalition between Alija Izetbegovic and Haris Silajdzic and their parties, the Party for Democratic Action (SDA) and the Party for Bosnia-Hercegovina (SBiH) respectively, is probably the most important political event in the Federation Bosnia-Hercegovina since the end of the war. Curiously enough, the event has been given very little publicity

The break-up of the Coalition for United and Democratic Bosnia-Hercegovina was followed with an attempt to fool the public with emphasis of the agreement on the establishment of the Alliance for United and Democratic Bosnia-Hercegovina. The attempt to hide the fact that "Alija and Haris are not together any more" was more than successful. By Wednesday when the coalition was registered for the elections by OSCE, almost the whole public and even a few newspaper commentators failed to comprehend that a tectonic disturbance had occurred on the Bosniak part of the Bosnian political scene. The dissolution of the "CD Coalition" and the formation of "CD Alliance" is far more significant than a pure change of a name: it marks an essential change after which SDA and SBiH will appear with common lists in municipalities of "extreme importance" for them, such as Bileca, Neum, Gruda or Lopare [these municipalities have very few Bosniak voters, who traditionally vote for one of there two parties], while the coalition partners will be fierce rivals in Sarajevo, Tuzla, Zenica, Bihac...

Unexpected Silajdzic's Reaction

A meeting of the Extended Commission of the Party for Bosnia-Hercegovina, attended by more than a hundred presidents of municipal and cantonal organizations of the party was crucial for the dissolution of the Coalition. It was held two days before the expiration of the deadline for registration of coalitions for participation in the forthcoming local elections. At the meeting Silajdzic faced a unanimous, strongly worded demand of the local organizations of this party for dissolution of the Coalition. The only dissident tone was introduced by president of the Cantonal Organization from Zenica Ekrem Ajanovic, but his proposal regarding the possibility of the formation of a coalition with SDA in Zenica-Doboj canton did not receive any support. The general feeling was the Ajanovic's proposal was a product of his desire to save his current position of a cantonal Minister for Health. Until the heads of local organizations spoke about the demands of their members for individual contest of the elections, the meeting went according to the expectations. When the presentations by the heads of local organizations were finished the most dramatic moment arrived: how would Haris Silajdzic react? Even his closest collaborators and friends did not know what he would say. They were all aware that his authority was sufficient and authoritarian method of management of the party efficient enough to change the "firm" decision of every local organization, apart from the one from Tuzla, about the dissolution of the Coalition with SDA. However, Silajdzic's reaction surprised everyone: he very peacefully received the opinion of the representatives gathered at the meeting concluding the discussion with an assessment that the party has in a most democratic fashion possible made the decision to contest the forthcoming elections on its own!

On the other hand the atmosphere at a similar meeting of the Party for democratic Action (SDA) was dictated by two circumstances: one is the result of an internal poll of the heads of municipal organizations of the party ("Declaration of the Presidents of Local Organizations of the Party for Democratic Action About the Current Standing of the Party and Contest of Local Elections Within a Coalition") and other, open pressure on Izetbegovic by his most influential collaborators to dissolve the Coalition.

Neither Hasan, nor Ejup, nor Edhem

Another circumstance which, according to the testimony of the participants in the meeting, caused open resignation on Izetbegovic's part, was open pressure by Cengic, Ganic, Bicakcic and Behmen to dissolve the Coalition for United and Democratic Bosnia-Hercegovina. One of the obvious motives of Hasan Cengic for the break up of the Coalition is his conviction that after the elections he will be able to rule on his own, without "nit pickers" from Silajdzic's party, in Una-Sana [western Bosnia, around the town of Bihac] and Bosnia-Podrinje [the town of Gorazde] cantons with assistance of his well placed family.

The only "Bosniak" canton in which the leaders of SDA until the last hour of negotiations tried to convince the Party for Bosnia-Hercegovina to form a coalition with SDA was Sarajevo canton. The reasons for that are more than obvious: even according to their own assessments, SDA is threatened by a debacle in a match with the Social-Democratic Party and the Party for Bosnia-Hercegovina. Presidents of municipal organizations of SDA in Stari Grad, Centar, Novo Sarajevo, Ilidza and Trnovo assess that their standing is worse in comparison with the last year. However, the offer and pressure by SDA were rejected without equivocation by SBiH. Undivided admiration and respect of the citizens of Sarajevo and international representatives for cantonal Prime Minister Beriz Belkic and mayor of the municipality Centar Igor Gaon give SBiH best chances for victory, besides Tuzla, exactly in Sarajevo canton.

Identical situations, in which Izetbegovic's and Silajdzic's efforts to preserve the Coalition received very little support, demoralized presidents of both parties and made them refrain from trying to test their own authority. Almost as a fulfillment of Izetbegovic's political desire, Silajdzic accepted the formation of the Alliance for United and Democratic Bosnia-Hercegovina. The Alliance will have common lists in cantons with mixed and minority Bosniak population in the Federation and in the Republic of Srpska. The Civic Democratic Party and the Liberal Party, as two parties for single use in coalitions, got exactly what they deserved. Efforts by Ibro Spahic and especially Rasim Kadic to preserve the "CD coalition" had no influence on the outcome of the negotiations. Consequently, the two politicians and their parties were returned to their realistic level of (in)significance.

A definite political split of former closest collaborators Izetbegovic and Silajdzic is a political paradox, as well as a sad event: they are parting their ways at the moment when their relations are much better than they were in the past, while they were in the same political party and the same coalition. Enthusiasm and relief with which Cengic, Ganic, and Bicakcic on the one side, and almost the complete leadership of the Party for Bosnia-Hercegovina on the other side, received the news about the end of the Coalition for United and Democratic Bosnia-Hercegovina can be only compared to Izetbegovic's disappointment and Silajdzic's nostalgia. Izetbegovic is still sufficiently lucid to realize that the chief motivation of his closest collaborators for the dissolution of the Coalition is to eliminate Silajdzic from the race and obtain best possible starting positions in expectation of the moment when neither Saudi nor American physicians will be able to delay unavoidable. He is aware that only one man can be his "natural" heir in the archaic concept of national leadership. However, his name is neither Hasan, nor Ejup, nor Edhem. Nevertheless, the awareness of this fact had to give in to the respect for the loyalty of his heirs within the party who, unlike Silajdzic, never dared to question the authority of the leader.

National Botany

Alija Izetbegovic is wise enough not to repeat the words of an imam said last week in a mosque in Sarajevo: "Bosniaks should not divide! Try to stick a split tree in the ground and see what happens!" Witnesses claim that Silajdzic, when told about the Islamic political credo of national ideology of the largest Bosniak political party, accepted "the botanical metaphor" and retorted with the following words: "No one puts a split tree in the ground. However, a tree without many branches is bound to atrophy!"

Even if the prediction of one of the leaders of the Party for Bosnia-Hercegovina, Dr. Safet Halilovic, according to which in cantons with Bosniak majority in the next ten years there are less than five towns and cities where one party will be able to rule on its own, does not in the end turn out to be correct, it is clear that the end of the Coalition for United and Democratic Bosnia-Hercegovina turns a new page of Bosniak-Bosnian political life. Haris Silajdzic is probably not even aware that the dissolution of the coalition with his former partners is the best move he has made so far in the interest of united and democratic Bosnia-Hercegovina.