DANAS: What will the campaign of the presidential candidate of the DOS, Vojislav Kostunica, be based on?
On three things that we believe Kostunica can achieve and Milosevic cannot, even if he stayed in power for another hundred years. He can return dignity to our state, dignity that is currently sorely lacking. Perhaps Americans do not need a state, but we are a nation that draws certain strength from a state and state symbols. Kostunica can bring us back to Europe. He has the support of all the pro-European forces in the state. Milosevic, on the other hand, is taking us away from Europe. Europe is our birthplace, rather than Far East. Kostunica can start creative economic potentials of our country, and Milosevic has blocked everything knowledgeable and professional. Perhaps Kostunica is not an expert for economics, but he is capable of gathering around himself experts from that area, as is confirmed by the support from G 17 plus. However, most importantly, Vojislav Kostunica can beat Milosevic. In earlier elections we had candidates but we doubted in their chances of victory. Now that is different.
All of us are behind him, and those who are not do not stand a chance. The campaign will be adjusted to Kostunica's image of a discrete and unassuming politician and will be based on small-scale events, appearances on local TV stations and visits to as many settlements in Serbia as possible.
You claim that Kostunica enjoys the support of pro-European forces. What about the others, for example, the USA?
The Alliance for Changes is a political group that enjoys credibility both in the West and the US. We support Kostunica, which means that he enjoys the backing of the people who have the strongest connections with the West. Everyone having any influence in the West is backing Kostunica, despite the awareness of his reservations with respect to that political block. We do not think that his attitude with respect to the US has changed only because we have chosen him for a candidate of the united opposition. No, our support brings that element, and Kostunica as a candidate brings other elements. It is enough that he is a democrat, dedicated to the rule of law, without inclination to voluntarism and political adventurism. For the first time we have created a symbiosis of different political options covering the spectrum ranging from democratic nationalism to cosmopolitanism.
Does that mean that you expect the support of western states in the election campaign?
We have talked with the representatives of the European Union and the US about the possibility of the abolishment of economic sanctions or about a statement that sanctions will be abolished regardless of the election results as long as the elections are free and fair. Americans refused to support that, but were prepared to abolish sanctions if the opposition wins. The people should not suffer under sanctions even if Milosevic wins. From the West, we expect clear guarantees that during the first year of the democratic government it will provide concrete economic support. That is important both for the campaign and the future government. We need a billion dollars for the first two-three months and another billion before the end of the first year. We have guarantees of the European Union that in the first two-three years a democratic government of Serbia will receive 5 billion German Marks in assistance.
What are your sources of financial support?
We have the usual donors whom we always contact and prepare before an election campaign. They know that we will approach them. Nevertheless, all of these parties have existed for at least ten years, so that all of them have stable sources of financial support and so far there have not been any problems. The support mostly comes from our people who do not live in the country, are not classical emigrants, but mostly those who left ten years ago. Most of them participated in the founding of our parties and some of them were politicians. I could not name names before obtaining their permission.
In Serbia, many voters abstain from voting or still haven't decided whom to support in September. Will you try to reach these voters?
We believe that the election atmosphere and concrete issues in these elections will contribute to a higher turnout, especially the fact that Milosevic and Kostunica are candidates. For the first time, the opposition has the support of non-governmental organizations and expert groups that are all working on motivating the population to vote in the forthcoming elections. However, opinion polls indicate that already the number of the voters who do not intend to vote or still haven't decided for whom to vote is smaller than in the same period before the previous elections. All those undecided voters have opted for the DOS. Thanks to that in the last three months Milosevic has increased his support by three percent, while we have increased support by 20 percent, which means that they are behind us by 15 percent. According to those polls, Milosevic can count on 22-25 percent, Kostunica on 35-40 percent and Mihailovic and Nikolic on under 10 percent. At the moment 10 percent of voters do not intend to vote, while another 15 percent still haven't made up their mind.
What are your predictions regarding the voter turnout in September?
About 82 percent of voters should use their voting rights. If the turnout exceeds 75 percent the DOS will definitely win. If the turnout is between 70 and 75 percent, our victory is still likely but less certain, while if the turnout is below 70 percent Milosevic will win. If those who have made up their mind switch back to non-voters or undecided, Milosevic's 25 percent would become 35 percent. For the first time the goal of our campaign is not to win people over, but to preserve the existing balance of power. During the next four weeks we will have to dispel all the doubts of those who have in the meantime decided to support the DOS.
How realistic are predictions that during the last month the support of citizens for the opposition has increased? Exactly during that time there was a conflict between the DOS and the SPO [the Serb Renewal Movement]. That party is not with you any more. Don't you think that that will additionally discourage the voters?
The only dangerous development at this point would be if the existing united opposition split up, but I am absolutely convinced that that will not happen. At the beginning of the year we had a wrong concept, imposed from outside, which was based on big promises, threats with an empty gun. The Studio B affair was the first indication of that. We demanded a change in the campaign, suggesting that instead we work on the checking of electoral rolls, and start preparations for the local elections and selection of candidates. They told us that time was not right, that there were no conditions for the elections. That was a dangerous concept, which, once it collapsed, gave the impression that the opposition was weak, that it lacked goals and was not united. However, the Alliance for Changes (SZP) had the concept of preparation for the elections and other parties accepted to participate in the elections regardless of the conditions. That opened up space for common work.
Time gave us credibility and people began to trust that we do have some sort of strategy, realizing that we had really united. The Serb Renewal Movement (SPO) will suffer consequences because of their decision not to join us. We held the door open for them, called on them to join us under equal conditions until the last moment. We told them to suggest a procedure for the selection of a common candidate that we were prepared to accept if it were unbiased and objective. They said no, we are the bosses, and we told them that we had been listening to that for the last ten years and were not interested any more. We have a plan and for the first time nothing is left to chance.
Will the DOS provide controllers in all the polling stations?
Formally yes. In reality, it will be extremely difficult to control elections in the electoral units Vranje, Prokuplje [cover Kosovo] and in Montenegro. But, I believe that the difference will be such that no manipulation will be able to change the outcome of the elections. We think that the true result will differ from the official tally by about 200,000-300,000. We think that our candidate needs to win about a million votes more than Milosevic. We have a candidate who can be accepted by most voters based on all of his characteristics, who does not irritate anyone and if he is not good enough that can only mean that people do not want changes. Manipulation with electoral rolls can change the result by at most 2 percent.
How will you deal with the SPO presidential candidate in the election campaign?
We will ignore both him and others. We will not allow that our presidential candidate enter any sort of discussion with them. We will not participate in debates. If the public opinion changes the way it seems likely at the moment, and if in a month that solidifies, we shall demand that the two candidates with the most support have a public TV debate. I believe that our candidate will not accept any other debate, except with the main opponent. Regardless of the amount of possible attacks by the SPO we shall not respond. By entering in an argument with them we loose initiative with respect to the SPS and thereby loose contact with the true opponent.
If your presidential candidate fails to pass to the second round, would you support the SPO candidate Vojislav Mihailovic in the second round?
That is a highly hypothetical question, but yes. That is the same as if you asked if I would support Borislav Pelevic [candidate of a small pro-regime party, previously led by Arkan]. My answer would be the same. Every candidate is better than Milosevic, since any change is at this moment a better solution than his prolonged stay in power.
You have announced a signing of a contract with citizens for September 1. What is the character of that contract and to what extent does it really oblige you?
By signing this contract we take full responsibility to fulfill it if we are elected. The representatives specify what they would do on the first day, what during the first month, and what by the end of the first year. The contract [program] is very detailed and carefully thought out. The contract will be signed by all candidates. It is not accidental that all programs offered by the SPS, JUL and SRS are very generic and do not presuppose any personal responsibility. In our case, there are real people behind all the parties and they will be responsible to the citizens. Not parties, but individuals. If this contract is broken, both the group and list would loose all the credibility.
Is that a sufficient guarantee that in case of victory you will not betray your voters?
Yes, for the first time it is a personal obligation in the form of a contract.
It would not be unprecedented if the ruling parties refused to recognize results in case of a victory by the DOS. Have you discussed that?
Our assumption is that Milosevic is considering the possibility of refusing to recognize election results. His reaction will depend on the results. If our victory is convincing, we believe that he will not dare annul the elections. We believe that the Army and Police will immediately accept election results in that case. The DOS will know the real results on the day of elections. If the results are favorable to us, we shall organize a celebration to seal those good results. Otherwise, citizens will have to defend their votes. We shall call on them to gather in city squares and block Serbia and finally finish what we have during the last ten years several times unsuccessfully tried to do. Then, it is just the matter of time when he will leave. There is no alternative.
What can the DOS promise to the citizens if it wins in the elections?
That within 24 hours sanctions will be abolished; that by the same deadline we shall have our office in Pristina; we shall go there and demand to be a factor in the solution of the Kosovo question; within a week, we shall initiate the question of return to international financial organizations, and in the same period make with the Montenegrin government an agreement about a common state. The DOS can promise that within the first one hundred days the democratic government will set up a program of investment in infrastructure using money obtained from the European Union and the European Development Bank. We shall change the laws about University, media, abolish verbal crimes. There will be no threats, TV will not intimidate and divide people. And that is absolutely certain.
The campaign will be very direct. We shall apply the textbook example of an election campaign: millions of fliers in mail boxes, millions of visits, phone calls, letters, home visits. There is no alternative, the authorities have entered the race for Belgrade knowing that the capital is the toughest nut to crack in Serbia. We will have an attractive candidate for the mayor - our proposal is Milan St. Protic as a non-party candidate. In Belgrade, the biggest problem will be suburban municipalities. There Socialists have an advantage with respect to the DOS, while we are absolute favorites in the central municipalities. Unfortunately, the only competition is the SPS, which has in spite of its policies kept certain influence in Belgrade, especially in Lazarevac, Mladenovac, Sopot, Grocka, and Barajevo.
What would you do in that case?
We would talk and try to figure out our mistakes. We would definitely not continue as if nothing happened. For the first time, we would accept that it was our fault, that we were unable to convince the people that we should be trusted. Many changes would take place in the opposition parties and 50 percent of us would withdraw from leading positions. That would be the least consequence. After such an outcome, many things in the opposition would be different.