by Zeljko CVIJANOVIC
Of course, Batic's lottery win was welcomed first by monarchist Milan St. Protic, who believes that presidents are unnecessary as such, which brings him even closer to the Prime Minister; then Zoran Djinjic, for whom the fact that he (still) is not a monarchist does not imply that Serbia needs a president if it already has a Prime Minister; let's not forget Vojislav Seselj, the SF hero of Serbia in the 21st century, the enemy of Flash Gordon, the creature that feeds on chaos and entropy; then Slobodan Milosevic, who from the heart of the EU berates his impolite heirs and subjects for the failure to cause a deluge in Serbia, whole two years after he was overthrown; and finally, there is Borislav Pelevic [leader of the Serb Unity Party, founded by late Zeljko Raznatovic Arkan, Serbian warlord, businessman, and alleged war criminal], some sort of a pop-singer of the Serbian political scene - one record is enough to get on the scene, of course.
It makes sense that this hope that elections would fail and reduced vitality of certain political conditions are not the only things holding together this, at first glance colorful gang; it's worth noting that Djindjic's government celebrated the failure of the second round of the elections as a very successful experiment. Namely, have you heard of this before? They allowed Serbia to vote, it voted against them, and nothing changes! Now everyone will keep quiet for a while, most of all the government, and the voters won't be forced, for a while, to go out and vote and thereby waste precious heat, snatched away from Kori Udovicki [Minister for Energy] after desperate struggle.
Of course, the game with the people who vote but nothing changes, was so attractive for Ceda Jovanovic that already on Monday he announced that new presidential elections should be called immediately, this week, before electoral law is modified, and even before anyone realizes what's going on with that magic formula according to which Serbia votes and after the election those it voted against stay in power. Jovanovic's announcement, as one of possible denouements (hm, denouements?) of the crisis after the failure of the second round of the presidential elections - at the time when the only remaining institutions in Serbia are the government and the church, and Vladan Batic between them - is only a reflection of the cynicism of the authorities, which count on the fact that presidential elections based on Milosevic's laws are such a neat toy that they should be repeated ad nauseam, until Serbia learns that changes do not happen after elections, but only when the Prime Minister says so. On the other hand, Jovanovic's idea is only a reflection of his momentary excitement with the fact that, like in the epic folk poetry, "he fell dead, and came home alive". But, foreigners are finding everything about Serbian political surrealism rather grating, and they are about to figure out that in Serbia there are far more dangerous ways to resemble Milosevic than to proclaim purported concern for the fate of Serbs on the left bank of the Drina River. All that means that those foreigners, who have been filling with oxygen for two years now the incubator where the new Serbian authorities are growing, will not tolerate one more unsuccessful election and the game with which Djindjic kept Serbia busy for the last few months will not work anymore.
The second possible denouement is an urgent change of the election law, that would strike down, at least in the second round, the requirement that at least 50 percent of registered voters brave the rain on one of the forthcoming Sundays. Then, elections would be called for late November. But, Djindjic did not fight against Milosevic for that. First, in order for the Serbian Parliament to convene, the Democratic Party of Serbia needs to get its seats back, or Djindjic has to figure out how to get out of that predicament and prove that by definition the Parliament is absolutely unnecessary unless it is controlled by his government.
However, that would not be the end of Prime Minister's troubles. Then, he would have to find a new candidate to run against Kostunica and Seselj in the repeated election. Still, after everything Miroslav Labus went through with Djindjic and his opponents, it will be much more difficult to find one of the ambitious and popular stars from G17 plus who would be willing to run the gauntlet. It is likely that in that case Djindjic, if he did not turn to Batic, a visionary, would have to find a candidate in his own party, the Democratic Party. Of course, it is not difficult to figure out that both Kostunica and Seselj would welcome such a turn of events. Seselj because he is convinced that Djindjic cannot find a candidate who would prevent him from passing into the second round of the elections, and Kostunica because he cannot think of a better opponent for the second round than Seselj.
Then, Kostunica would convince even the most skeptical voters - as he managed to prove in the past, failed elections - that he is the only politician in the reformist block who can make sure that Seselj never becomes anything but a leader of political forces that will forever remain at considerable distance from power. At the same time, whether they want or not, in such a denouement all those who do not believe in the benefits of life under Seselj's rule would have to support Kostunica, so that the current Yugoslav president would become the Serbian version of Jacques Chirac fighting against Le Pen, and the political pendulum in Serbia would return to the point at which it was in September 2000.
The ball is in Djindjic's court, nevertheless, which means that he would prefer the first possibility (immediately new elections with current laws), but that foreigners won't let them do that, while he will resist the second possibility (immediately new elections, based on new laws), even if the foreigners threaten to impose sanctions.
Therefore, Djindjic will be forced to do the only thing he hasn't done so far - to speak Kostunica's language. Consequently, in the days to come Serbian media will be flooded by legal experts explaining that the failure of the second round of presidential elections clearly shows that they should not be repeated until the Constitutional Charter of Serbia-Montenegro and the new constitution of Serbia are adopted, which means that the elections may never be held if parties in the parliament decide so, or even - everything is possible - president may be elected by the government.
Djindjic would thus buy perhaps another year in power, enough to drag out the story about the constitution and cement everything he has started. However, the problem is that in that case Serbia would discuss the constitution in the conditions of the worst possible institutional crisis, even worse than anything that happened under Milosevic. But who cares about institutions at the moment when so much political will is spent on preventing the holding of elections at all cost, or making sure, if elections have to be held, that they fail.
Whatever foreigners may think about all that, one of these three denouements will happen depending on how many parties in the DOS coalition will be ready to follow Djindjic in implementation of his political will, and how many will condition their support for Djindjic's government on the return of that will within the legal framework. This is a test for the small parties in the DOS, which will have an easier time surviving a fall from the twentieth floor than general elections. If they decide to defend their bit of power at all cost - in the coming few months Serbia will be entangled in crises and chaos. In that case, the fate of Serbia will be decided by midgets.